Adams, Linsley should be priorities, but Packers are well positioned in terms of the salary cap

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By BOB McGINN

Wide receiver Davante Adams and center Corey Linsley are fighting for more dollars on their next contract with the Green Bay Packers.

For safety Morgan Burnett, cornerback Davon House and guard Jahri Evans, they’re just battling to be back next season.

Probably one year removed from negotiations with their franchise quarterback, the Packers have positioned themselves in typically advantageous position, both short and long term, with regard to the NFL salary cap.

The aforementioned players are the five starters on the Packers’ list of 12 headed for unrestricted free agency in March. They pared one name from the list 10 days ago by signing guard Lane Taylor to a three-year extension averaging $5.5 million.

“Everything is about priorities,” said Andrew Brandt, the Packers’ contract negotiator and salary-cap manager from 1999-’08. “Last year, (Nick) Perry was an obvious priority; we’ll see where they are now.

“And, I would think they are looking at the 2018 list along with 2017 to determine priorities.”

The Packers rank 13th among the 32 teams in space beneath their salary cap at $10.277 million. It has been many years since they ranked in the bottom half of the league in cap room due largely to disciplined financial practices initiated by Brandt and adhered to by his successor, Russ Ball.

“We have always had a conservative cap approach since my time there, trying to limit guarantees and ‘pay as you go” as much as possible,” said Brandt, the director of the Moorad Center for Sports Law at Villanova University and analyst for ESPN, the MMQB and The Athletic.

“Signing bonus proration can be dangerous if the player does not work out so we tried to avoid that as much as possible, as they continue to do.”

Aaron Rodgers is in the early stages of the five-year, $110 million ($54M guaranteed) extension that the club signed him to in April 2013. Thus, he’s obligated for this season and two more before being eligible for free agency.

He had 1 ½ seasons remaining in November 2008 when the Packers signed him to a five-year, $63.52 million ($20M guaranteed) extension.

“We would never let Brett (Favre) get within two years of free agency before working on an extension,” said Brandt. “I suspect that is the same with Aaron, and they will negotiate next off-season.”

Based on his average salary of $22 million, which at the time was No. 1 among quarterbacks (and all players), Rodgers is now No. 7 at the position behind Matthew Stafford ($27M), Derek Carr ($25M), Andrew Luck ($24.59M), Drew Brees ($24.25M), Kirk Cousins ($23.94M) and Joe Flacco ($22.13M).

“Don’t think David Dunn isn’t going for $30 (million),” an NFL front-office executive said in reference to the agent that has represented Rodgers on his last two deals.

“It all depends on Russ’s philosophical viewpoint. He’s got three years left on his deal. Most guys don’t rework that until two years are left.”

Fresh off his best year and an eye-catching showing in training camp, Adams essentially has moved past Randall Cobb as the second starter behind No. 1 Jordy Nelson. He could be the team’s primary target by March but will need to earn his financial reward.

“I think they’ve got to pay him,” an executive in personnel said. “It’s going to be the Cobb number. But he’s got to have a break-out season.”

Cobb, in his seventh season, is in the third year of the four-year, $40 million ($13M guaranteed) contract that he signed in March 2015. Nelson, 32, recently said he was planning to play three or four more seasons.

When their contracts expire after the 2018 season, an executive guessed that neither would get another lucrative deal from Green Bay. Both players appear to be immense fan favorites, and it’s possible to imagine either in a late-career role ala Donald Driver, who took a paycut to finish his career in 2012 for one year at $2.3 million.

Presently, Cobb ranks 14th among NFL wide receivers at $10 million per year; Nelson is 15th at $9.76 million.

Linsley, a fifth-round draft choice in 2014, no doubt will be eyeing center JC Tretter’s three-year deal with Cleveland in March that averaged $5.58 million ($10M guaranteed). Eight centers presently average $8 million or more.

“They may get Linsley for cheap,” said one personnel man. “He’s middle of the pack.”

Linsley, however, would appear to have more leverage than Burnett because there doesn’t appear to be another capable center on the roster. In Burnett’s case, the Packers already have two and perhaps even three players to replace him: Kentrell Brice, Josh Jones and Marwin Evans.

Burnett can enhance his value, of course, by following up on his top-notch performance as an inside linebacker in the opener.

“I’ve got to see how he plays,” one scout said. “They may go young there. We’ll see.”

House, 28, was regarded by one personnel man as “just a band-aid.” The same probably is true of Evans, who struggled against Seattle and will be 35 before next season.

The biggest names with contracts expiring after the 2018 season figure to be safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, linebacker Clay Matthews and running back Ty Montgomery.

At safety, Kansas City’s Eric Berry leads at $13 million per year. Minnesota’s Harrison Smith, who ranks fifth at $10.25 million per year, might be an apt comparison for Clinton-Dix.

“I would think they’ll start working on that next off-season,” said one personnel man. “That (Smith’s value) is about where it is.”

Matthews, in his ninth season, ranks fifth among outside linebackers in average salary ($13.2 million). In addition, he counts the second highest amount against the Packers’ salary cap at $15.075 million.

A year ago, Matthews had the most pedestrian season of his career when injuries limited him to 51.4% playing time. He didn’t have even one great game.

“I’d let him walk,” one executive said of when Matthews becomes a free agent after the 2018 season. “How many games has he missed the last two years (four)? He’s not always on the field.

“What is his impact as a player? That’s what you base it off of. Everything should be based off production, not commercials.”

Montgomery is one of seven starters scheduled to hit free agency after the 2018 season. Others are fullback Aaron Ripkowski, cornerback Damarious Randall and nickel back Quinten Rollins.

Since Thompson took over in January 2005 the Packers haven’t lost many players over money that they wanted to keep. In some cases, they had the money but drew a line and effectively bowed out of negotiations.

That list includes guards Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera in 2005, center Scott Wells in 2012, wide receiver Greg Jennings in 2013, House in 2015 and both guard T.J. Lang and tight end Jared Cook in 2017. The release of guard Josh Sitton in 2016 was partly due to money.

In July, the Packers announced that their cash reserve fund had increased to $349 million.

“They’ve got ample cash,” said one executive. “Cash is king.”

For the fiscal year that ended March 31 the corporation reported net profit of $72.772 million, or $23.831 million more than their previous mark set the year before.

“Cash on hand never inhibited our ability to negotiate,” said Brandt. “Obviously, other teams may be owned by billionaires who are assumed to have that kind of cash on hand, but some do not.”

In a related note, the Packers announced the release of punter Jacob Schum on June 1. On Sept. 2, they placed Schum on injured reserve, according to an executive with another team that has access to NFL transactions, but the move was not announced.

In any event, Schum continues to count $621,450 against the Packers’ salary cap.

2018 PACKERS FREE AGENTS

UNRESTRICTED (12)
Name, PosAgeAccrued seasons’17 Base Salary
*Morgan Burnett, S287$4,750,000
*Corey Linsley, C263$1,797,000
Richard Rodgers, TE253$1,787,000
*Davon House, CB286$1,500,000
*Jahri Evans, G3411$1,150,000
Ahmad Brooks, LB3311$1,000,000
*Davante Adams, WR243$956,373
Brett Goode, LS329$900,000
Quinton Dial, DT274$775,001
Don Barclay, C-G-T285$775,000
Demetri Goodson, CB283$690,000
Jeff Janis, WR263$690,000
RESTRICTED (2)
Jacob Schum, P282$615,000
Joe Thomas, LB262$615,000
EXCLUSIVE RIGHTS (5)
Geronimo Allison, WR231$540,000
Justin McCray, G-C250$465,000
Adam Pankey, T-G230$465,000
Lucas Patrick, C-G240$465,000
Herb Waters, CB240$348,000
*Starter.
PACKERS CAP SALARIES

Here is a list of players that count $600,000 or more against the Green Bay Packers’ adjusted salary cap of $175,693,976. (M = millions of dollars):
Player, posCap salary
Aaron Rodgers, QB20.300M
Clay Matthews, LB15.075M
Randall Cobb, WR12.656M
Jordy Nelson, WR11.550M
Mike Daniels, DT10.400M
Bryan Bulaga, T7.850M
Morgan Burnett, S6.981M
David Bakhtiari, T6.171M
Nick Perry, LB5.925M
Lane Taylor, G4.950M
#Sam Shields, CB4.275M
Martellus Bennett, TE3.850M
Mason Crosby, K3.600M
Ahmad Brooks, LB3.500M
Davon House, CB2.800M
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S2.656M
Jahri Evans, G2.500M
Damarious Randall, CB2.164M
Kenny Clark, NT2.134M
Richard Rodgers, TE1.924M
Corey Linsley, C1.850M
Lance Kendricks, TE1.775M
Kevin King, CB1.287M
Davante Adams, WR1.257M
Jason Spriggs, T1.144M
Quinten Rollins, CB1.027M
Don Barclay, C-G-T1.025M
Ty Montgomery, RB788,636
Quinton Dial, DT775,001
Josh Jones, S769,711
#James Starks, RB750,000
Kyler Fackrell, LB749,012
Jake Ryan, LB735,834
Demetri Goodson, CB720,291
Jeff Janis, WR709,513
Brett Hundley, QB677,573
Montravius Adams, DT651,194
Aaron Ripkowski, FB648,264
Dean Lowry, DE642,513
Blake Martinez, LB642,513
Jacob Schum, P621,450
Joe Thomas, LB621,450
Brett Goode, LS615,000
Jamaal Williams, RB606,498
Trevor Davis, WR603,459
# No longer with team.
BENEATH THE CAP

How NFL teams currently rank in room beneath the salary cap. (M = millions of dollars). The salary cap for all teams in 2017 is $167M, although teams can roll over cap space from the previous season. The result is an average adjusted cap of $175.11 million.
Team Cap room
San Francisco 64.018M
Cleveland 61.888M
Jacksonville 34.426M
Tennessee 31.138M
Indianapolis 19.717M
NY Jets 17.769M
Tampa Bay 17.380M
Houston 14.348M
Minnesota 12.864M
Denver 11.989M
Chicago 11.689M
Cincinnati 11.338M
Green Bay 10.277M
Oakland 9.873M
Dallas 8.820M
Philadelphia 7.329M
Detroit 6.617M
Carolina 6.352M
Buffalo 5.833M
Pittsburgh 5.676M
New England 4.778M
Arizona 4.655M
NY Giants 4.444M
Washington 4.127M
Baltimore 3.990M
New Orleans 3.590M
Seattle 3.283M
Kansas City 3.173M
LA Rams 3.086M
LA Chargers 2.416M
Miami 2.026M
Atlanta 1.683M

The post Adams, Linsley should be priorities, but Packers are well positioned in terms of the salary cap appeared first on Bob McGinn Football.

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Interesting scenarios of what could happen, related to the cap. It almost floored me when they mentioned Burnett possibly being let go, after his contract expires. Then I think.... what do they see that I don't in Brice, Jones, & Evans? None of them stand out like Burnett has, from the day he stepped on the field. He was solid from game one, and his mistakes were few and far between, although they did happen.

On Matthews... I think they let him go. Too much money to keep him. Only two, Starks & Shields, being paid guarantee money, no longer with the team. That's good.

I'm not certain how far they can stretch that $10 mill to be honest. I look at the 49ers with over $64 mill, and I'm jealous. Imagine what the Packers could do with that chunk of change.
 
I think they easily find enough for Linsley and Adams. Neither will break the bank. Linsley should end up in the $5-7mil range, Adams probably in the $6-8mil range depending on how this season goes. That $10mil number is for the current season, but with expiring contracts they'll be $28mil under the CAP in the next off-season so they have room.

I agree TW, they should not be so quick to write-off Burnett. He's not that old, still looks fast enough and could likely be signed for about the same money he's making now on a short-term 2-3 yr deal. He'll then come off the books at the same time Brice, Jones and Evans are ready to hit FA.

2018 will be the crucial/crazy year. A lot of big contracts coming off the books and some tough decisions to make. Cobb, Nelson, HHCD, Matthews, and a few others I think will all be due and you absolutely need to do AR's deal that year. (The Packers will probably be in that $50-60mil CAP space range in April 2019.) Fortunately AR already counts a bunch against the CAP so you may only need a few more million of CAP room early on, depending on how it's structured. You also have to redo HHCD. I think about adding a couple of years for Jordy and Cobb, but those deals need to be pretty team friendly, especially Cobbs. I part ways with Matthews unless he shows a lot more these next 2 seasons or he comes at a huge bargain.

These pending FAs also point to team needs going forward. You absolutely must draft a quality OG this year. You also need to draft a WR early and an OLB to cover for age and the chance that guys just need to be let go after 2018. You are pretty well set on offense beyond OG and WR so no "need" to go there in 2018. Similarly on defense, other than OLB you are probably OK. You are young and deep in the secondary. Could use an OLB and ILB if one is on the board, and don't really "need" any DL at the moment, but you of course always take one if he's there.
 
I think they easily find enough for Linsley and Adams. Neither will break the bank. Linsley should end up in the $5-7mil range, Adams probably in the $6-8mil range depending on how this season goes. That $10mil number is for the current season, but with expiring contracts they'll be $28mil under the CAP in the next off-season so they have room.

I agree TW, they should not be so quick to write-off Burnett. He's not that old, still looks fast enough and could likely be signed for about the same money he's making now on a short-term 2-3 yr deal. He'll then come off the books at the same time Brice, Jones and Evans are ready to hit FA.

2018 will be the crucial/crazy year. A lot of big contracts coming off the books and some tough decisions to make. Cobb, Nelson, HHCD, Matthews, and a few others I think will all be due and you absolutely need to do AR's deal that year. (The Packers will probably be in that $50-60mil CAP space range in April 2019.) Fortunately AR already counts a bunch against the CAP so you may only need a few more million of CAP room early on, depending on how it's structured. You also have to redo HHCD. I think about adding a couple of years for Jordy and Cobb, but those deals need to be pretty team friendly, especially Cobbs. I part ways with Matthews unless he shows a lot more these next 2 seasons or he comes at a huge bargain.

These pending FAs also point to team needs going forward. You absolutely must draft a quality OG this year. You also need to draft a WR early and an OLB to cover for age and the chance that guys just need to be let go after 2018. You are pretty well set on offense beyond OG and WR so no "need" to go there in 2018. Similarly on defense, other than OLB you are probably OK. You are young and deep in the secondary. Could use an OLB and ILB if one is on the board, and don't really "need" any DL at the moment, but you of course always take one if he's there.

Excellent analysis. Long term issues are very important. Sometimes hanging onto a guy for an extended period of time by giving him big bucks, can hamstring you down the road when others, more important to success, are needed.

I do believe the next contract with Rodgers will stretch to the end of his career, and give the Packer a two or three year window to draft and groom a replacement. When we do replace Rodgers, I think the whole team will be restructured. It will be a short down period until it's done.It will probably include new coaches, new GM, and the team won't look anything like it does now.
 
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