CC's 16 team NCAA Football Postseason Tournament

Crease Creature

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The seeding is done and the bracket is getting put together as you read this. I wanted to go through my seeds.

The 10 conference champions are seeded first, the top 8 host a game at their campus. The criteria for seeding the champs was:

-Conference Record
---Undefeated champs go first
-----one loss champs go next

further seeding criteria was (not in any order)
-overall record

-strength of schedule
---Opponent Total Ranking (OTR)
-----OTR is figured by adding together the final Massey composite ranking of all opponents
on a team's schedule. FCS teams are counted as their FCS rank +130
+scored golf style, lower the better

-Rank of average win
---Figured by dividing the OTR for all victories by # of victories

-Best win
+eye test of highest ranked victory

-avg loss
+the average ranking of all opponents not defeated

-worst loss
+rank of lowest unbeaten opponent

-Win Multiplier
+Total FBS victories of all beaten opponents.
++WM wasn't done when the seeding was more apparent.

So, now that you see all that, the seeds. Please note that for the bracket, things such as regional geography are taken into consideration, so the bracket may not come out to be 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15, etc, exactly. I do my best to keep things even but fair.

  • UCF (American Athletic Conference)
    • #1 Seed
      • undefeated in conference play (9-0)
      • undefeated regular season (12-0)
      • SOS: 66
      • OTR: 890
      • Avg Win: 75
      • Best victory: #19 Memphis (2x)
      • no losses
      • Win multiplier: 57
  • Florida Atlantic (Conference USA)
    • #2 Seed
      • undefeated in conference play (9-0)
      • 10-3 regular season
      • SOS: 94
      • OTR: 1054
      • Avg Win: 105
      • Best Win: #64 North Texas (2x)
      • Avg Loss: 49 (Navy, Wisconsin, Buffalo)
      • Worst Loss: #88 Buffalo
  • Oklahoma (BigXII Conference)
    • #3 Seed
      • 9-1 in conference play
      • 12-1 regular season record
      • SOS: 3
      • OTR: 710
      • Avg Win: 56
      • Best Win: #4 Ohio St
      • loss: #32 Iowa St
      • Win Multiplier: 64
      • head to head over Ohio State
  • Clemson (Atlantic Coast Conference)
    • #4 Seed (a change from my earlier post)
      • 9-1 in conference play
      • 12-1 regular season record
      • SOS: 4
      • OTR: 652
      • Avg Win: 48
      • Best Win: #9 Auburn
      • loss: #72 Syracuse
      • WM: 70 (most)
  • Georgia (Southeastern Conference)
    • #5 Seed
      • 8-1 Conference Record
      • 12-1 regular season record
      • SOS: 7
      • OTR: 703
      • Avg Win: 57
      • Best Win: #9 Auburn
      • loss: #9 Auburn
      • WM: 67
  • Ohio State (BigTen Conference)
    • #6 Seed
      • 9-1 conference record
      • 11-2 regular season record
      • SOS: 2
      • OTR: 664
      • Avg Win: 57
      • Best Win: #6 Wisconsin
      • Avg Loss: 14 (OU, Iowa)
      • Worst loss: #25 Iowa
      • WM: 67
  • Southern Cal (Pac-12 Conference)
    • #7 Seed
      • 9-1 Conference Record
      • 11-2 regular season
      • SOS: 12
      • OTR: 643 (2nd lowest)
      • Avg Win: 55
      • Best Win: #15 Stanford
      • Avg Loss: 17 (Notre Dame, Washington St)
      • Worst Loss: #24 Washington St
  • Boise State (Mountain West Conference)
    • #8 Seed
      • 8-1 Conference Record
      • 10-3 Regular Season
      • SOS: 67
      • OTR: 907
      • Avg Win: 78
      • Best Win: #33 SDSU (also beat Troy head to head)
      • Avg Loss: 42 (Washington St, Virginia, Fresno St)
      • Worst Loss: #63 Virginia
  • Toledo (Mid-American Conference)
    • #9 Seed
      • 8-1 Conference Record
      • 11-2 regular season
      • SOS: 79
      • OTR: 1147
      • Avg Win: 97
      • Best Win: #60 Northern Illinois
      • Avg Loss: 36 (Miami (FL), Ohio)
      • Worst Loss: #60 Ohio
  • Troy (Sun Belt Conference)
    • #10 Seed
      • 7-1 Conference Record
      • 10-2 Regular season
      • SOS: 100
      • OTR: 1242
      • Avg Win: 110
      • Best Win: #20 LSU
      • Avg Loss: 72 (Boise St, South Alabama)
      • Worst Loss: #116 South Alabama
  • At Large: Wisconsin
    • #11 Seed
      • 9-1 conference record
      • 12-1 regular season
      • SOS: 17
      • OTR: 737
      • Avg Win: 61
      • Best Win: #18 Northwestern
      • loss: #4 Ohio St
      • WM: 66
  • At Large: Auburn
    • #12 Seed
      • 7-2 Conference Record
      • 10-3 regular season
      • SOS: 1
      • OTR: 695
      • Avg Win: 67
      • Best Win: #2 Georgia
      • Avg Loss: 7 (Clemson, LSU, Georgia)
      • Worst Loss: #20 LSU
      • WM: 54
      • head to head over Alabama
  • At Large: Penn St
    • #13 Seed
      • 7-2 conference record
      • 10-2 regular season
      • SOS: 5
      • OTR: 659
      • Avg Win: 63
      • Best Win: #18 Northwestern
      • Avg Loss: 11 (Ohio St, Michigan St)
      • Worst Loss: #19 Michigan St
      • WM: 55
  • At Large: Alabama
    • #14 Seed
      • 7-1 conference record
      • 11-1 regular season
      • SOS: 6
      • OTR: 746
      • Avg Win: 67
      • Best Win: #20 LSU
      • loss: #9 Auburn
      • WM: 55
  • At Large: Miami
    • #15 Seed
      • 7-2 conference record
      • 10-2 regular season
      • SOS: 14
      • OTR: 661
      • Avg Win: 59
      • Best Win: #10 Notre Dame
      • Avg Loss: 32 (Pitt, Clemson)
      • Worst Loss: #64 Pittsburgh
      • WM: 51
  • It hurts to type this, but At Large: Notre Dame
    • #16 seed
      • 9-3 regular season
      • SOS: 9
      • OTR: 458*
      • Avg Win: 47*
      • Best Win: #12 USC
      • Avg Loss: 10 (Georgia, Miami, Stanford)
      • Worst Loss: #15 Stanford
      • WM: 57 (with Navy having one more game)
*ND had the lowest OTR and Avg Win in the field

So there's the field. The other teams that I considered:
TCU (10-3 (7-3 BigXII)) SOS: 8, OTR: 854 (highest of the power 5 teams), Avg Win: 81 (also highest of P5), Best Win: #17 Ok State, Avg Loss: 14 (OU 2x, #32 ISU**) worst loss: #32 ISU, WM: 42

Washington (10-2 (7-2 Pac-12)) SOS: 24, OTR: 775, Avg Win: 72, best win: #23 Wazzou, avg loss: 27 (Stanford, #39 Arizona St**), WM: 44

Stanford (9-4 (7-3 Pac-12)) SOS: 11, OTR: 558 (2nd lowest), Avg Win: 56, best win: #10 ND, avg loss: 20 (USC (2x), #33 SDSU**, Wazzou), WM: 48
I just couldn't justify putting a 4-loss team in the bracket despite the h2h over ND

Memphis (10-2 (7-2 AAC)) SOS: 60, OTR: 927, Avg Win: 90, Best Win: #51 UCLA, losses: #9 UCF (2x)
When I saw that Memphis wasn't gonna make it, I didn't bother with Fresno St (#69 SOS) or SDSU (#70).

**that teams lowest rated unbeaten opponent.
 
Last edited:

TW

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#2
Wow!!!
That is an impressive evaluation of teams, and how a 16 game format would work out. It's also fair to say that teams would have no complaints as to why they reached the playoffs, or didn't make it. The worst case scenario would only be at about #15 & #16, where it becomes a little more muddled.

Great job! I'm beyond impressed!
 

Crease Creature

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Thread starter #3
Notre Dame had a clear edge over TCU, much to my surprise, and Washington just didn't have anything impressive. And Stanford just had too many losses.


d how a 16 game format would work out
I can't quite get the bracket to work yet, the normal format (1v16, 2v15...) doesn't quite play itself out into my normal four regions. So we'll see.

Thanks for the kind words.
 

TW

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#4
It's amazing how comparable statistics can actually change our perceptions of what we see in a raw perspective, and then in an adjusted perspective when the math is applied.

You do a great job with it!
 

Crease Creature

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I figured it out.

So remember, my main bracketing criteria is
1. geography
1a. no conference opponents in opening round
1b. no season rematches in opening round.

This got complicated as it would mean Boise St. and USC would have to be in the same regional, but due to my conference champs hosting a home game I'd have had to put the #7 and the #8 in the same section. Wasn't gonna work.

Straight bracketing got some good matchups, and this year that's what I'm going with, save for one small change. I'm swapping the #11 (Wisconsin) and #12 (Auburn) seeds to avoid conference championship rematches (with #6 Ohio St and #5 Georgia respectively)

Here's the Bracket:
[xtable=skin1|@x270]
{tbody}
{tr}
{td=316x@}Sat Dec 16{/td}
{td=184x@}Sat Dec 23{/td}
{td=251x@}Mon Jan 1{/td}
{td=252x@} Mon Jan 8{/td}
{td=253x@} Mon Jan 1{/td}
{td=256x@} Sat Dec 23{/td}
{td=256x@}Sat Dec 16{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td=316x@}
#16 Notre Dame @
#1 UCF{/td}
{td=184x@} {/td}
{td=251x@} {/td}
{td=252x@} {/td}
{td=253x@} {/td}
{td=256x@} {/td}
{td=256x@}
#14 Alabama @
#3 OU{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td=316x@} {/td}
{td=184x@}Citrus B.{/td}
{td=251x@} {/td}
{td=252x@} {/td}
{td=253x@} {/td}
{td=256x@}Cotton Bowl{/td}
{td=256x@} {/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td=316x@}#9 Toledo @
#8 Boise State{/td}
{td=184x@} {/td}
{td=251x@}Rose Bowl{/td}
{td=252x@} {/td}
{td=253x@} {/td}
{td=256x@} {/td}
{td=256x@}
#12 Auburn @
#6 Ohio State{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td=316x@} {/td}
{td=184x@} {/td}
{td=center|251x@} {/td}
{td=center|252x@}National Title{/td}
{td=253x@} {/td}
{td=256x@} {/td}
{td=256x@} {/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td=316x@} {/td}
{td=184x@} {/td}
{td=251x@} {/td}
{td=center|252x@}Game{/td}
{td=253x@} {/td}
{td=256x@} {/td}
{td=256x@} {/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td=316x@}#13 Penn State @
#4 Clemson{/td}
{td=184x@} {/td}
{td=251x@} {/td}
{td=252x@} {/td}
{td=253x@}Sugar Bowl{/td}
{td=256x@} {/td}
{td=256x@}
#15 Miami @
#2 Fl Atlantic{/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td=316x@} {/td}
{td=184x@}Peach B{/td}
{td=251x@} {/td}
{td=252x@} {/td}
{td=253x@} {/td}
{td=256x@}Orange Bowl{/td}
{td=256x@} {/td}
{/tr}
{tr}
{td=316x@}#11 Wisconsin @
#5 Georgia{/td}
{td=184x@} {/td}
{td=251x@} {/td}
{td=252x@} {/td}
{td=253x@} {/td}
{td=256x@} {/td}
{td=256x@}
#10 Troy @
#7 USC{/td}
{/tr}
{/tbody}
[/xtable]
 

TW

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#6
It has to be really difficult seeding teams when nearly half of them hail from the southeast in polls. Then, add in three Big 10 teams, and you have 10 of 16 already filled. Next, the natural conference games and rivalry games out of conference, and it gets even headier. Then along comes Notre Dame, whose game list has no regional taste, but is a mish-mosh of games against teams across the whole US, but yet, they are a regional team too because of location.

Good job. That had to take a lot of time moving them around until the puzzle came together. I like the format, except for only two games on New Years Day. I think I'd like to see that schedule pushed back a week, with the battle for the final four on New Years Day, and make it the only college bowl games broadcast on that day, to draw more attention to them.

To me, that would make that week and the following two weeks a showcase of games involving the run to the championship. It would be a lot like the NCAA basketball tournament then, and that format is well received.
 

Crease Creature

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I think I'd like to see that schedule pushed back a week
You're probably right, and that's how it would probably go in real life to accommodate the student part of the players' lives.
 

Crease Creature

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Now that the season is over, I wanted to take a look at my seeding and the bracketing that I did after the conference championship games.

Region 1:
I don't think there's any doubt, UCF would blaze a path to the Final Four.

Region 2:
Penn St and Clemson is a game I would have wanted to see.
And call me biased, but I honestly think the Badgers would have gotten over Georgia. Better offensively than Alabama, better defensively than OU. And they proved that they could play a true road game and win. I don't know that Wisconsin would beat the winner of the other game.

Region 3: I think OU would have had the horses to get ahead of Alabama (like Georgia did), but they would have stayed there. Ohio St-Auburn is a toss up to me.

Region 4: Going in, I wouldn't have expected FAU to be the best looking team in the region (they beat Akron 50-3!). Given Miami's maturity issues, I think the Owls might have upset them (having been overlooked), and the Trojans would obliterate Troy (ironic).

Who knows, UCF might be celebrating a more recognized title if this was the format.
 

TW

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#9
Excellent analysis. It's amazing how different scenarios create different results.
 
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