Green Bay’s advantage at quarterback isn’t what it used to be

M

Mark Eckel

Guest
By BOB McGINN

The gulf between the Green Bay Packers’ two quarterbacks and the opposition over the last 25 years is as responsible as any factor for why the franchise has remained a consistent winner.

Many fans expect the Packers to be right back among the teams with a double-digit victory total and competing for the Super Bowl next season.

That line of thinking, of course, is incumbent upon quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning from injury, starting all 16 games and reclaiming his lofty status among the game’s greatest players.

If Rodgers isn’t able to carry the Packers on his back, the Packers probably won’t go anywhere. Coach Mike McCarthy was exposed in 2013 and again last season when Rodgers missed significant time with a pair of fractured collarbones, and the Packers’ roster without Rodgers entering the off-season is more befitting that of a loser than a contender.

The problem for the Packers and their optimistic fans is the expected usually doesn’t happen in the National Football League.

Rodgers is 34 and entering his 14th season. He has missed 27 games in his career because of a broken foot (2006), a hamstring injury (’07), a concussion (’10) and the broken clavicles. He also suffered a torn anterior cruciate knee ligament in high school, another concussion in ’10 and two calf injuries in ’14. He underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in January 2016.

Rodgers is a physical-fitness and nutrition devotee who has expressed his desire to play until age 40 or beyond. Not only can Rodgers take a licking and keep on going, he has strengthened his body over the years to withstand heavy blows.

At the same time, Rodgers has been sacked about as often as any quarterback in the league during his decade as a starter. He holds the ball longer than some of his peers, and a critical element of his game is extending plays and waiting until the last second before throwing downfield.

Both of Rodgers’ collarbone injuries occurred as he scrambled to the right before being tackled by Chicago’s Shea McClellin in 2013 and Minnesota’s Anthony Barr in Ocotober. Not only was Rodgers sacked 22 times in 418 snaps last season but he also was knocked down on 17 other attempts.

“The way they play, it’s just a matter of time … inevitably, the one that Barr laid down ended his season, potentially,” new Raiders coach Jon Gruden said Nov. 6 on the ESPN telecast of the Green Bay-Detroit game. Rodgers returned to play at Carolina Dec. 17 before the Packers declared his season over.

Gruden went on to add: “All those second reaction scramble-drill plays have been fun to watch but you’re playing with fire when you’re scrambling and playing outside the pocket as much as Aaron Rodgers has.

“I would think when he comes back he’s going to be more inclined to stay in the pocket because he is as good as there is.”

My instinct tells me that Rodgers will take Gruden’s friendly warning as a challenge and play the game exactly the way he has always played it.

Some will continue to maintain that Rodgers unquestionably remains the best quarterback in the business. What tends to be forgotten is how many top-notch quarterbacks have entered the NFL in the past few years and that Rodgers hasn’t played as well in the last three seasons as he did previously.

That chasm between the quarterbacks in Green Bay, which has meant Rodgers for the last decade and Brett Favre for 16 years before that, and the competition no longer exists. Rodgers remains an elite player, without question, but the Packers no longer have as many games favoring them with a mismatch at the most important position.

Let’s examine three meaningful statistical barometers from Rodgers’ career (regular-season only): his three seasons from 2008-’10, his four seasons from 2011-’14 and his three seasons from 2015-’17.

Passer rating: 99.36 from 2008-’10; 112.59 from 2011-’14, and 98.40 from 2015-’17.

Completion percentage: 64.6% from 2008-’10; 67% from 2011-’14, and 63.5% from 2015-’17.

Yards per attempt: 7.99 from 2008-’10; 8.51 from 2011-’14, and 6.99 from 2015-’17.

In each category, Rodgers’ numbers were best from 2011-’14, second best from 2008-’10 and third best from the last three seasons.

Rodgers played well immediately after taking over for Favre. My annual grades for him were a B in 2008, a B-plus in ’09 and an A in ’10, when the Packers won the Super Bowl.

Rodgers received an A-plus for his first MVP season of 2011, an A-minus in ’12, a B in ’13 and an A in his second MVP season of ’14.

As his 16-game slump from early November 2015 until mid-October 2016 played out, Rodgers got a B-minus in ’15, an A-minus in ’16 and a B in ’17.

Rodgers owns a hefty five-point advantage over runnerup Russell Wilson (98.8) in career passer rating at 103.8. He’s also fifth in the post-season career category at 99.4.

Using regular-season numbers only, however, Rodgers ranks fifth over the past three seasons. Tom Brady leads at 105.02, followed by Drew Brees (102.10), Wilson (98.92), Matt Ryan (98.71) and Rodgers (98.40).

Rounding out the top 15 from 2015-’17 are Kirk Cousins (97.54), Alex Smith (97.23), Matthew Stafford (96.49), Dak Prescott (95.48), Ben Roethlisberger (94.37), Sam Bradford (94.16), Andy Dalton (93.88), Philip Rivers (92.61), Tyrod Taylor (92.49) and Derek Carr (91.54).

When Rodgers established the record for passer rating with 122.5 in 2011, just three other quarterbacks were over 100, just 10 were over 90 and just 20 were over 80. The league average was 82.5.

In 2017, there were five ratings over 100, 15 over 90 and 26 over 80. The league average was 85.1, two years after the record of 88.4 was set.

Offense-slanted rules changes in the last decade offered increased protection for quarterbacks and made it even more difficult for defenses to cover receivers. As a result, passer ratings have soared, but at the same time the NFL has welcomed a steady stream of exciting quarterbacks from the college ranks that have risen to challenge the aging greats at the position.

The 2013 draft didn’t include a single quarterback of merit. Each of the last four drafts, however, has been a good one; 13 starting quarterbacks have come from the last four drafts.

It wasn’t long ago when the success rate for quarterbacks drafted in the first round was about 50-50. Of the eight passers selected in the first round of the last three drafts, only Denver’s Paxton Lynch looks like a bust.

This infusion of quarterbacking talent leaves only a handful of teams, perhaps four or five, in need of a starter.

Some of those openings figure to be filled as Cousins departs Washington in free agency, two of the three unsigned veterans likely leave Minnesota, Nick Foles possibly is traded by Philadelphia and Jacoby Brissett perhaps leaves Indianapolis if Andrew Luck makes a full recovery from right shoulder surgery dating to January 2017.

At the same time, this has the makings of another outstanding quarterback draft with UCLA’s Josh Rosen, Southern California’s Sam Darnold, Wyoming’s Josh Allen, Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph and Louisville’s Lamar Jackson all possessing the tools to become successful starters.

If some of the established stars are looking over their shoulders, they really shouldn’t be. Most of them have pelts on the wall and aren’t going anywhere, at least for now.

It won’t be too much longer, especially if this draft class pans out like the last four, before some of the thirty-somethings will have to call it a day.

I divided the 28 seemingly established veterans into three categories. Here they are, in alphabetical order.

ABLE TO BEAT ANYONE ON ANY SUNDAY (12)

Tom Brady, 40, New England: Another MVP seasons ends with a Super Bowl defeat.

Drew Brees, 39, New Orleans: Expected to re-sign with Saints before the start of free agency.

Derek Carr, 26, Oakland: Took a major step back but played too well in 2015 and ’16 to downgrade.

Andrew Luck, 28, Indianapolis: The Colts say no more surgery is necessary as the humble warrior mounts his comeback.

Cam Newton, 28, Carolina: Led quarterbacks in rushing (754 yards) and started all 17 games after off-season shoulder surgery held him back early.

Philip Rivers, 36, San Diego: Voted to the Pro Bowl after steady, less flamboyant season.

Aaron Rodgers, 34, Green Bay: “As long as he wants to continue to take hits, he’ll be able to play until he’s 45.” – Tony Romo in July.

Ben Roethlisberger, 35, Pittsburgh: Two years left on his contract, would like to play three more years.

Matt Ryan, 32, Atlanta: MVP and rating leader (117.1) in 2016; crashed to 15th at 91.4 in ’17.

Matthew Stafford, 30, Detroit: Turned in another strong season but it wasn’t enough to prevent coach Jim Caldwell from being fired.

Carson Wentz, 25, Philadelphia: Headed for MVP award in second season when blown ACL brought on Super bowl hero Nick Foles.

Russell Wilson, 29, Seattle: Led the NFL in touchdown passes (34) and finished second in yards rushing by a quarterback (586).

ABLE TO BEAT ANYONE ON SOME SUNDAYS (12)

Blake Bortles, 25, Jacksonville: Salvaged his career with by far his best season.

Andy Dalton, 30, Cincinnati: Marvin Lewis hired Alex Van Pelt to be his quarterbacks coach.

Joe Flacco, 33, Baltimore: Hasn’t played well since the Super Bowl season of 2012.

Jimmy Garappolo, 26, San Francisco: Ex-Patriot looked great (96.2 rating) leading 49ers to a 5-0 finish.

Jared Goff, 23, Los Angeles Rams: Rams led the NFL in scoring as the top pick in 2016 made remarkable progress (63.6 rating to 100.5).

Case Keenum, 29, Minnesota: Career journeyman took chances and made them work in Vikings’ 13-3 season.

Marcus Mariota, 24, Tennessee: Led five comeback victories in third season but didn’t progress as anticipated.

Dak Prescott, 24, Dallas: Touchdown-interception ratio slipped from 23-4 to 22-13.

Alex Smith, 33, Washington: After a career year (league-leading rating of 104.7), the Chiefs traded him. Deal can’t become official until start of league year March 14.

Ryan Tannehill, 28, Miami: Tore his ACL in training camp but returns as the starter in 2018.

Deshaun Watson, 22, Houston: Headed for offensive rookie of the year honors (103.0 rating, 269 yards rushing) when he suffered a torn ACL in practice after his seventh game.

Jameis Winston, 24, Tampa Bay: Played well down the stretch after mid-season slide due partially to shoulder problems.

ABLE TO BEAT ANYONE NOW AND THEN (4)

Patrick Mahomes, 22, Kansas City: Andy Reid turned the team over to this gunslinger who backed up Alex Smith as a rookie before impressive performance in meaningless Game 16 start.

Eli Manning, 37, New York Giants: Remains the starter by default after possibly worst season of his career.

Tyrod Taylor, 28, Buffalo: Solid leader and dangerous runner that apparently can’t get any better as a passer.

Mitchell Trubisky, 23, Chicago: Played OK as a rookie given the tomato cans impersonating his wide receivers.

Several oddsmakers in Nevada have established the Packers as one of the two or three teams with the best chance to prevent the favored Patriots from winning their sixth Super Bowl in February 2019.

They’re obviously confident that Aaron Rodgers will be the Aaron Rodgers of old next season.

Barring injury, Rodgers should be very, very good once again. A growing number of other quarterbacks should be good, too.

The post Green Bay’s advantage at quarterback isn’t what it used to be appeared first on Bob McGinn Football.

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If Rodgers isn’t able to carry the Packers on his back, the Packers probably won’t go anywhere. Coach Mike McCarthy was exposed in 2013 and again last season when Rodgers missed significant time with a pair of fractured collarbones, and the Packers’ roster without Rodgers entering the off-season is more befitting that of a loser than a contender.

There aren't many teams that can lose their HOF caliber, starting QB and still win a Super Bowl. I wonder how good Philly would have been with Hundley at the helm. They certainly wouldn't have won the Super Bowl. If Hundley would have played half as good as Foles did as a back-up, the Packers may have made the playoffs despite the awful defense.
 
I think there's a fair correlation between AR's play and the quality of skill players around him, isn't there? He was guns blazing from 2009-11/12 when he had Driver, Jordy, Jones, Jennings, Cobb and Finley. As that depth has disappeared so has some of that "easy" greatness. It's a lot harder for him to make those plays now than it was back then. That's not a ground breaking observation either, it's plain as day. Brain drain in the front office, talent drain on the field - the story of Ted Thompson's Packers.

Drew Brees' play has slacked in some recent years, and no coincidence it's when the team was bad/mediocre. Some more talent on O and a better D puts everyone in a better position, and you see the 39 year old Brees playing like he's 10 years younger. Build up the roster again, build a D that can keep points off the board, get a receiving group that's legit 3-4 deep and IMO you'll see AR be every bit as good as he was 5-6 years ago.
 
There aren't many teams that can lose their HOF caliber, starting QB and still win a Super Bowl. I wonder how good Philly would have been with Hundley at the helm. They certainly wouldn't have won the Super Bowl. If Hundley would have played half as good as Foles did as a back-up, the Packers may have made the playoffs despite the awful defense.
But then we wouldn't have achieved the critical mass it took to get Murphy to finally make some overdue changes.
 
But then we wouldn't have achieved the critical mass it took to get Murphy to finally make some overdue changes.
I'm not saying that's what I wanted to happen but in reality, Hundley was so awful they struggled to beat the bottom dwellers and the defense was on the field all the time. They were shut out twice. Average QB play would have resulted in 2-3 more wins. Foles level QB play would have resulted in 3-5 more wins.
 
What was more than evident was the lack of talent though. I wasn't expecting the team to perform like it does with Arod, but dear lord even with Hundley they should have been able to perform better than they did had the roster had the talent it was advertised to have by some. Furthermore Arod being out shouldn't have had any effect on the defense. If anything a roster with talent and good coaching would have improved when it's Qb went down as they stepped up to help the team....
 
What was more than evident was the lack of talent though. I wasn't expecting the team to perform like it does with Arod, but dear lord even with Hundley they should have been able to perform better than they did had the roster had the talent it was advertised to have by some. Furthermore Arod being out shouldn't have had any effect on the defense. If anything a roster with talent and good coaching would have improved when it's Qb went down as they stepped up to help the team....

Let's unpack this a little bit.

First, "good coaching". The fact that the defensive/offensive coordinators and several of the position coaches are no longer employed by Green Bay are pretty strong indicators that there were problems (scheme and communication to name just a couple) that ran pretty deep, and there was also a lack of transparency in acknowledging these issues because the HC values "self evaluation" and "continuity" in this coaching staff. What happens in 2018 will go a long way towards shedding light on how high up the food chain that this problem existed. Bringing Philbin back (IMO) was a very good move. He's a "behind the scenes" type of personality that does his best work when the spotlight is shining on someone else. Pettine has a strong track record as a DC, but it remains to be seen as to whether of not his style of coaching "fits" in GB. These changes loom as critical for the long term.

Second, "roster with talent". To start the season I would think that would have been a fair assessment of this team. But injuries (and rancor) stole a lot of that talent over the course of the season, and I just don't know how any team can recover from that kind of decimation. At CB, House missed several games with injuries, while King played with one arm for most of the season until finally succumbing to IR. Rollins went to IR early (maybe a good thing). Randall played poorly early on and got benched, then got his head on straight and redeemed himself. For parts of the season the cornerback position was manned by no names like Josh Hawkins and Lenzy Pipkins, but maybe them getting a chance at real reps could be a good thing for the future. Injuries (again, like in 2016) robbed this position group of talent.
At OLB, Perry, Matthews, and Brooks all missed stretches of the season with injury, which left them with one healthy OLB (Kyler Fackrell). Reggie Gilbert was brought up from the PS late in the season to shore up the position. Chris Odom (signed as a waiver claim from ATL after the final cutdowns) was a healthy scratch for most of the season. He has the body type (6-4/262) that Capers coveted as an OLB. I just don't understand why he was never used more than he was.

When you are down to you 4th string RT, and he's supposed to be a backup G, that tells you another position was robbed of its (preseason) talent by injuries as well. Bulaga, Spriggs, Murphy all found their way to IR this last season. Spriggs, may be the first player in NFL history to end up on IR twice in the same season. (Ugh.......makes my brain hurt!) They were darn lucky that someone named Justin McCray turned out to be serviceable enough to play at RT as much as they asked of him this last year. Could anyone foresee this kind of attrition at one position. I read that the Packers used 11 different OL personnel groupings this last season. Injury robbed this unit of any cohesion and continuity in 2017.
Injuries also found a way to compromise the RB position as well, even though they drafted to beef it up. Ty Montgomery ends up on IR after only 71 carries on the season. Jamaal Williams missed 2 games with an injury, and Aaron Jones missed 3 games as well. Devante Mays stats for the season were 4 carries, 1 yard, 2 fumbles. (OUCH!) That's why I'm an advocate of drafting another RB in 2018, and not waiting until the 5th-7th round to do so.
Finally, we can't over-look the damage that Martellus Bennett did to this team last year, both on the field and in the locker room. He was a stone-handed cancer and I was so glad when he left. When he was signed, I was very pleased. He had played well for NE in 2016, and I thought he could actually be an upgrade over Jared Cook. I was so wrong about him, and I'm not alone in that admission.

IMO, the talent on this team isn't as bad as the 2017 record/performance might indicate. Do they need some upgrades at some spots? Oh yeah! But remaining relatively healthy, for once, could go a long way towards showing that this team isn't as far off from getting back to a SB as we think at this point in time.

BG does have his work cut out for him though. Over-priced veteran contracts that need to be tweeked. Being a player in FA, rather than being a spectator. Being smart with a draft that could provide as many as 12 draft picks.

I'm wishing him luck and crossing my fingers!
 
What was more than evident was the lack of talent though. I wasn't expecting the team to perform like it does with Arod, but dear lord even with Hundley they should have been able to perform better than they did had the roster had the talent it was advertised to have by some. Furthermore Arod being out shouldn't have had any effect on the defense. If anything a roster with talent and good coaching would have improved when it's Qb went down as they stepped up to help the team....

Not in complete disagreement with you but having an awful QB can impact the defense negatively. The Packers were 27th in time of possession in 2017. They held the ball for an average of 28:36. In 2016 they held the ball for an average of 31:04. 2 1/2 minutes less of possession. The defense was on the field more. How many times did we say the defense looked gassed. Offensively it was well documented how many times Hundley missed receivers running open or was late getting the ball out to receivers that would have extended drives. Hundley was responsible for 17 turnovers, 12 INTs and 5 fumbles in 11 games. The most INTs Rodgers threw in 16 games was 13 INTs and the Packers were 6-10.
 
When you are down to you 4th string RT, and he's supposed to be a backup G, that tells you another position was robbed of its (preseason) talent by injuries as well.
Um no... your supposed to have the depth on your roster or acquire the people to play OT. Using a OG and plugging him was on the staff.
Second, "roster with talent". To start the season I would think that would have been a fair assessment of this team. But injuries (and rancor) stole a lot of that talent over the course of the season, and I just don't know how any team can recover from that kind of decimation.
MM has stated over and over, Injuries will not be an excuse. When this team overcame them and won an SB everyone was on that bandwagon... it goes the other way and it's "injuries stole our talent"

Bottomline is you want to along with others here want to play the injury card. That's fine but IMHO that's a cheap out for bigger problems on this FB team.
 
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