It’s now or never for McCarthy as 13th season awaits

M

Mark Eckel

Guest
By BOB McGINN

Mike McCarthy grew up in a hardscrabble section of Pittsburgh. A realist, he’s well aware of the actuarial tables for head coaches in the NFL.

He had a front-row seat two decades ago when it all came crashing down on Marty Schottenheimer in Kansas City. The end wasn’t pretty. It usually isn’t.

McCarthy’s mentor won at a .615 rate (104-65-1) in 10 seasons, making the playoffs at a 70% clip. Other than one season of Super Bowl glory, McCarthy’s .626 winning percentage (131-78-1) and 75% playoff rate in 12 seasons in Green Bay are eerily similar to Schottenheimer’s.

McCarthy is a street fighter with many admirable qualities as a head coach, offensive coordinator, play-caller, administrator and leader. He has done his part to sustain the generation of success enjoyed by this franchise. City officials have named a street after him, and one day he’ll be inducted into the team’s hall of fame.

By definition, his is a what-have-you-done-for-me lately profession. This will be his 13th season in the same city, an eternity in the NFL.

How much longer will McCarthy last in Green Bay? Football history suggests not much longer.

The future cannot be predicted. Based on events of the past month, however, McCarthy won’t go down without a fight.

He flexed his muscles 48 hours after team president Mark Murphy announced the team’s structure without Ted Thompson would remain unchanged and that the next general manager didn’t necessarily require a background in scouting.

Some people around the league, and me, interpreted that as Murphy’s clarion call all but confirming the promotion of cap czar Russ Ball to GM.

Two days later, McCarthy used the word “fit” four times in response to a question about what he regarded as crucial in the search for Thompson’s successor.

That same day McCarthy went several steps further, telling his coaches and staff that if the next GM wasn’t to his satisfaction he was set to leave for the Arizona Cardinals or another team. It’s possible the one-year extension (through 2019) that McCarthy signed during the season contained language enabling him to walk if there was a change of general managers.

McCarthy was dead serious, and not for a moment would I doubt that he would have received at least one offer to coach another team in 2018.

Murphy certainly heard McCarthy, loud and clear.

For whatever reason, Murphy came up with a plan four days later in which personnel director Brian Gutekunst, not Ball, became GM and a seismic structural shift was enacted in which Murphy assumed the authority to hire and fire the coach. In essence, he’s now running the football operation.

Some in the league view it as a power grab by Murphy in which he became the de-facto general manager much like an owner such as Mike Brown in Cincinnati.

Be that as it may, McCarthy was the big winner in that he’s now working as a co-equal with the GM of his choosing (Gutekunst) and has the ear of his boss. Murphy and McCarthy have been talking on a daily basis, far more than ever before in their previous 10-year association.

At the same time, McCarthy performed major surgery on his coaching staff, firing five coaches (one was re-hired) and letting go of another whose contract had expired.

The fact that McCarthy has now fired at least 17 coaches, in effect three others with expired contracts and forced the resignation of another in 12 years when Mike Holmgren didn’t fire anyone in seven years casts McCarthy in a terrible light. Just a few years ago McCarthy bragged that he had the finest coaching staff in the league.

“When you fire somebody it’s more a reflection on you,” said a longtime NFL personnel man. “Holmgren was a strong, loyal coach who had tremendous confidence in his own ability. If you looked up self-preservation in the dictionary Mike McCarthy’s name will be right next to it. This is the head coach and front office conspiring to deflect blame.”

Again, McCarthy doesn’t seem worried about appearances. Contractually, the coaching staff is his domain, and if he goes down he’s going down with his people.

On offense, McCarthy replaced Edgar Bennett, who from the outside didn’t seem effective as a coordinator, and brought back Joe Philbin, his old confidant from 2006-’11. The other main addition was Jim Hostler as pass game coordinator.

On the one hand, the hires appear inspired. Coaches and players valued and trusted Philbin, and when Hostler was coaching wide receivers for Baltimore at the Super Bowl five years ago I interviewed him three days in a row because everything he said made so much sense.

On the other hand, where are the fresh ideas for an offense that ranked an unconscionable 31st in average gain per pass attempt in two of the last three seasons?

“We’re going to keep on doing what we’re doing in Green Bay,” Aaron Rodgers told USA Today at the Super Bowl last week.

In some ways, what Philbin knows is what McCarthy knows. “He doesn’t bring much more to the table in terms of innovation,” said one personnel man.

Hostler did work under coordinators Cam Cameron and Jim Caldwell in Baltimore and Pep Hamilton and Rob Chudzinski in Indianapolis. However, his roots in McCarthy’s version of the West Coast offense stem largely from when they worked together in New Orleans and San Francisco.

McCarthy’s tactics on offense and overall strength as a coach were exposed by Rodgers’ collarbone fractures in 2013 and ’17.

“There’s a lot of run-pass options,” said one scout. “If you’ve got the quarterback you can execute it. Rodgers is a triggerman just like (Tom) Brady. He can recognize quickly and can always put you in a good position.”

While the Packers couldn’t win without Rodgers, the Vikings were reaching the NFC Championship Game with backup Case Keenum and the Eagles were winning the Super Bowl with backup Nick Foles.

“I think that offense has gotten stale,” one personnel man said. “They’ve become predictable. McCarthy might be drinking too much of his own Kool-Aid. Just like it was Peyton Manning’s offense in Indianapolis, this is Aaron Rodgers’ offense. Let’s be honest.”

On defense, the two major hires came from outside. Coordinator Mike Pettine, 51, and McCarthy, 54, are represented by the same agent, Trace Armstrong. Patrick Graham is the new run game coordinator and inside linebackers coach.

The defense figures to be an amalgamation of ideas from Pettine, a disciple of Rex Ryan; Graham, a disciple of Bill Belichick, and Joe Whitt, who was promoted from cornerbacks coach to pass game coordinator and brings his own perspective and the best of Dom Capers.

“McCarthy brought in a guy from Pennsylvania who acts like him, talks like him,” said a former NFL assistant coach who has worked with Pettine. “He’s the same guy. That’s why I see him there.

“They both were blue-collar kids that have come from Pennsylvania football systems. They’re not rah-rah guys. They’re stoic, old-school. Do they relate well to the modern football player? Probably not. Does McCarthy see that? Probably not.

“There’s no reason Pettine can’t be successful there. He’s a solid football coach, but he’ll only be as good as his personnel. You’ve got to have players. The Green Bay Packers don’t have impact players on defense. They just don’t. The problem in Green Bay on defense is personnel.”

Whatever Pettine and his subalterns arrive at for a scheme probably will pale in importance next season compared to the intensity of the unit and reinforcements in personnel.

The major indictment of Capers was that his defenses last season and in the last few seasons were no better than average when it came to playing hard. The Lions, for example, probably had no better players than the Packers but their effort level was consistently higher.

“The energy and the finish is something we have to get right,” Whitt told reporters last month. “I hope all the guys understand we have to play with a passion that’s second to none. With the whole staff being different one thing I have noticed is the energy in the room is really high. The players are going to feel that.”

Today’s head coach in the NFL doesn’t have the leverage over players that coaches did in Vince Lombardi’s era. Fear doesn’t go as far. In some ways, if you want high-effort players, you better draft them.

Nevertheless, I would argue that the appearance and vibrancy of authority figures still matters a lot when it comes to how a football team operates.

In Green Bay, the head coach has gained a ton of weight in the past few years and no longer is the athletic-looking firebrand that commanded attention on the practice field as recently as the Super Bowl season.

You used to see Holmgren demonstrating technique at practice not only to quarterbacks but also wide receivers and tight ends. Alabama’s Nick Saban is hands-on with the cornerbacks on a daily basis. Belichick is constantly in the bench area on Sundays offering pointers or encouragement to various position groups.

Generally, McCarthy studies his offensive call sheet during games and practices, communicating with coaches (on game days) and the quarterback electronically.

Thompson, who was reassigned to a scouting role, moves ever so slowly on the practice field and could never stop fretting about the threat of injuries.

“(Thompson) made them into a carbon copy of himself,” said a member of the Packers’ coaching or scouting staffs in the last few years. “Non-emotional. Not tough. Least path of resistance. Afraid of injuries. Don’t hit. The guy fell asleep at the wheel.”

Another member of those staffs described the atmosphere within the building as “so lethargic.”

McCarthy often talks tough but his team didn’t play that way last season. Decisions authorized by Thompson to cut ties with T.J. Lang, Julius Peppers and Micah Hyde in March robbed McCarthy of three players that took no guff from opponents.

The return of Rodgers must be the reason various Nevada oddsmakers have placed the Packers as high as second behind the Patriots to win the next Super Bowl. It sure can’t be their roster.

As one personnel man said last month, “The Packers have got to be remade. That team has fallen apart.”

Really, what don’t the Packers need?

Defensive tackle would be one position. Starting quarterback is another strength. Three-fifths of the offensive line should be set. You’ve got to like the punter. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with Mason Crosby.

Thompson is out after receiving a C-minus in 2015, a D in ’16 and an F in ’17 in my annual grades for his personnel work the last three years. Murphy, and the executive committee, should be saluted for making that move.

Gutekunst will have sufficient salary-cap space to sign some veterans in free agency. He also will benefit with an additional draft choice or two in the compensatory system.

The Packers’ problem, however, is the brain drain in the personnel department and how it might affect the first-year GM, especially in free agency. Gutekunst, according to one source, was trying to hire Scot McCloughan; instead, he joined GM John Dorsey in Cleveland last week as a consultant from now through the draft.

McCloughan and Gutekunst, whom he mentored for his first 1 ½ years in Green Bay, remain close, according to a mutual acquaintance. McCloughan, the 49ers’ former GM, is widely regarded as an elite evaluator.

Ball, rather than the GM, now has responsibility for the salary cap but, in the end, also must answer to Murphy. McCarthy should understand better than anyone that the roster needs a transfusion. The manner in which Ball controls the purse strings in comparison to Thompson might be critical in the season ahead.

In the end, it comes back to McCarthy. Can he reinvent himself without Thompson, so to speak, and play a more prominent role in personnel as he attempts to revitalize an offense and rebuild a defense?

In McCarthy’s first nine seasons, my annual grades for coaching in Green Bay included one A, one A-minus, one B-plus, one B, three B-minuses, one C and one D-minus.

I gave him a D-minus in 2015, a B-minus in ’16 and a D in ’17. It should be apparent that he hasn’t been the effective coach in the last three years that he was previously.

In press conferences Jan. 2 and another six days later, Murphy used the plural “championships” four times and “Super Bowls” three times as the organizational goal. After 7-9, maybe the singular would be more apropos.

McCarthy’s charge is to accomplish something only one coach in history has done: Win another Super Bowl after a gap of more than five years.

McCarthy has gone seven years since collecting his Super Bowl. Belichick had a nine-year gap between his third and fourth titles.

Mike Holmgren tried for 12 years to win a second Super Bowl. It was 10 years for Mike Ditka, and seven for both Hank Stram and Brian Billick.

Among active coaches, it has been nine seasons since Mike Tomlin’s lone championship, eight for Sean Payton, six for Jon Gruden, five for John Harbaugh and four for Pete Carroll.

McCarthy is in control of his fate to an extent he probably never imagined possible in Green Bay. Increased authority, however, means increased accountability.

Do you share Mark Murphy’s confidence that Mike McCarthy can return the Lombardi Trophy to Green Bay?

The post It’s now or never for McCarthy as 13th season awaits appeared first on Bob McGinn Football.

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1. I know this will cause a bunch of heartburn some folks.... but he asks some interesting questions.

2. [bcolor=#ffcc00]
The Green Bay Packers don’t have impact players on defense. They just don’t. The problem in Green Bay on defense is personal.”
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I think #2 is true to an extent, while a bunch of folks think it was just Capers... I really believe our personal are a contributing factor on defense. We 100% have some sorry pass rushers and our DB our trash technique-wise.


Gee, most of this forum have said this for 2-3 seasons >>> [bcolor=#ffcc00]
“I think that offense has gotten stale,” one personnel man said. “They’ve become predictable.
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If they want to give MM enough rope to hang himself, so be it if that's what it takes. We should be reminded though, to be careful what we wish for. We all wanted TT gone but instead of getting John Dorsey to right the ship and turn the energy up to 11, we got the Charlie Casserly special. Do you trust Mark Murphy, Russ Ball and their band of merry know-nothings to hire the right coach? Do you believe a really good coach will even put himself into this situation?
 
If they want to give MM enough rope to hang himself, so be it if that's what it takes. We should be reminded though, to be careful what we wish for. We all wanted TT gone but instead of getting John Dorsey to right the ship and turn the energy up to 11, we got the Charlie Casserly special. Do you trust Mark Murphy, Russ Ball and their band of merry know-nothings to hire the right coach? Do you believe a really good coach will even put himself into this situation?

To be frank, keeping the devil you know around because the unknown might be worse isn't a good reason not to make a change. This could work out fine and GB rights the ship. But if not the common denominator is the HC. Sometimes RP you just got to cut bait and try something else.
 
I think they've put a band aid on a problem that's much worse. It's not going to be righted as easily as they seem to think in the Packer front office.

I've thought about the Dorsey situation, and quite honestly, I doubt he'd have taken the job if it was set up as it is now. There's no way he'd let the coach undercut him. Being willing to accept this plan could well be the only reason Gutekunst got the job.
 
To be frank, keeping the devil you know around because the unknown might be worse isn't a good reason not to make a change. This could work out fine and GB rights the ship. But if not the common denominator is the HC. Sometimes RP you just got to cut bait and try something else.

Oh I agree, same as the situation with the GM. I guess my question is, will we have that same attitude if they cut bait on MM, try something else and it blows up in their face like it did with the GM situation?
 
TL;DR - MM is too fat to coach.
Gotta love how McGinn inserts some shots at MM. Provides a well written article and then mixes a few lambastings in between.
 
Gotta love how McGinn inserts some shots at MM. Provides a well written article and then mixes a few lambastings in between.

He don't like McCarthy, no doubt about it. Sometimes you have to temper things he says about him, to insure you're reading what he wrote in a more balanced way.

I wonder how much it will change towards the positive, if McGinn gets his press pass into the inner circle again. Sometimes that's a great big game changer for writers.
 
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