Packers, Rodgers must combat Falcons’ speed and spies

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By BOB McGINN

Mike Smith’s seven-year tenure as the winningest coach in Atlanta Falcons’ history was in the last month three years ago when his team lost a heartbreaker to the Green Bay Packers, 43-37, at Lambeau Field.

From 2010 to 2012 the Falcons qualified for the playoffs, twice as the top seed. Atlanta and Green Bay owned the best records in the NFC over that three-year span, and one might argue that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers ruined things for the best team Smith ever had in the 2010 divisional round.

After performing the day-after autopsy of the Falcons’ narrow defeat against the Packers in 2014, Smith mentioned matter-of-factly that he had counted 13 times in the game in which Rodgers extended the original design of the play.

Smith, a defensive coordinator by trade, played the Packers tough in five meetings with their franchise quarterback under center, winning the first two. He just couldn’t find a way to contain Rodgers, whose passer ratings in those five games were 109.4, 114.5, 136.8, 117 and 123.3.

As Smith’s successor, Dan Quinn, prepares to meet the Packers Sunday night at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the talk among Packers fans is whether the defense can hold up its end of the bargain after allowing 77 points, 55 first downs, a 63.6% third-down conversion rate and 860 yards in the pair of losses to the Falcons last season.

Yet, as awful as that was, I’d be equally if not more concerned about the offense, which in truth was equally as pathetic trailing, 31-0, midway through the third quarter of the NFC Championship Game eight months ago before a late flurry made the final score 44-21.

That’s because Quinn, a disciple of Pete Carroll, has built a defense around speed, particularly at linebacker, that at long last might enable the Falcons to hem in Rodgers and limit possibly the most dangerous element of coach Mike McCarthy’s system of football.

NFL analytics people will tell you that a quarterback with the ability to extend plays tips the scales their way every Sunday. The only reason the Packers avoided being shut out in January at the old Georgia Dome was the ability of Rodgers to extend plays for gains of 26, 28, 20 and 34 yards.

Before the Super Bowl, New England coach Bill Belichick said overall team speed was the distinguishing characteristic of the Falcons.

The Falcons lost that game in overtime after holding a 28-3 lead late in the third quarter. After playing lights out on defense, the Falcons ran out of gas after being on the field for 99 snaps.

McCarthy wore out the Seahawks last week, making their defense play 82 snaps. He’ll surely try it again, and a power run game could expose the Achilles’ heel of Atlanta’s undersized defense.

The Packers better be much sharper on offense than they were against Seattle or, for that matter, the first half of last season. Those Falcons defenders are going to be buzzing around shrinking windows in zone coverage, closing holes for the run and, above all, trying to knock Rodgers off his game just as they did in the title game.

The best way to stifle Rodgers is a heavy four-man rush. At times during his tenure Smith had that, but his linebackers simply weren’t athletic enough to handle Rodgers when he slipped under the rush of someone like defensive end John Abraham.

Look at Smith’s linebackers in 2008, his first meeting with the Packers. Curtis Lofton (6-0, 241), the middle linebacker, was a solid player but at times had to be lifted on passing downs because of his pedestrian 4.68 speed in the 40. Michael Boley (6-2 ½, 223, 4.58) had speed but not much else, and old pro Keith Brooking (6-2 ½, 243) wouldn’t have been able to approach his 4.63 clocking of a decade earlier.

When the teams split in 2010, the Falcons were starting Lofton, Stephen Nicholas (6-1, 236, 4.65) and 12-year veteran Mike Peterson (6-1 ½, 226), whose 40 probably was closer to 4.75 than his pre-draft clocking of 4.53.

For the meetings in 2011 and ’13, Sean Weatherspoon (6-1, 244, 4.55) had brought needed athleticism. Lofton and Peterson also started in ’11 but by ’13 Weatherspoon had been joined by Paul Worrilow (6-2, 234, 4.65) and Joplo Bartu (6-1 ½, 230, 4.82).

In December 2014, when Rodgers ran the Falcons ragged, Worrilow and Bartu were starting alongside Prince Shembo (6-1 ½, 253, 4.68).

It didn’t take long for Quinn to decide he didn’t want Bartu or Shembo. Worrilow was a different story.

Signed by Smith as a free agent from Delaware in 2013, Worrilow started as a rookie and almost immediately began making a ton of tackles as an every-down player. He also was one of the players Quinn saw Rodgers running by on those killer extended plays.

Quinn concentrated on the defensive line in the 2015 draft, adding Vic Beasley (6-3, 246, 4.53) and Grady Jarrett (6-0 ½, 305, 5.08). Worrilow played 869 snaps and still was productive in Quinn’s first season, but last year his playing time had been sliced to 162.

In March, Worrilow moved on as an unrestricted free agent to Detroit (one year, $3 million), and in the Lions’ opener played 12 snaps from scrimmage and 26 more on special teams.

In some ways Worrilow is similar to the three inside linebackers on the Packers’ roster. They’re looking to replace Blake Martinez (6-1 ½, 237, 4.67), Jake Ryan (6-2 ½, 240, 4.65) and Joe Thomas (6-0 1/2, 228, 4.71). It’s also why Morgan Burnett has moved from safety so the Packers don’t have to play more than one traditional inside linebacker.

“It’s one of the things that helps us,” defensive coordinator Dom Capers said at mid-week. “We just think that with the Ty Montgomery’s and the (Devonta) Freeman’s of the world, you have to have a similar type athlete on the other side of him.”

In 2016, Quinn found his dream pair of inside linebackers in middle linebacker Deion Jones (6-1, 222, 4.45) from LSU in the second round and outside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell (6-3 ½, 234, 4.56) from Minnesota in the fourth round.

Jones, the fastest linebacker in the draft, never leaves the field. He isn’t as vicious as Ray Lewis but his early impact is in the same general vicinity as a youthful Lewis.

Jones has been Quinn’s Bobby Wagner just as Campbell has been his K.J. Wright, especially in terms of his exceptional arm length (33 5/8 inches). If you want to carry the Seattle comparison a step further, rookie linebacker Duke Riley (6-0 ½, 218, 4.60), a third-round pick from LSU, is much like little Malcolm Smith, who manned the weak side off and on for the Seahawks from 2011-’14.

“We knew what the blueprint looked like,” Marquand Manuel, who was promoted to defensive coordinator in February, said at the Super Bowl. “If you don’t have team speed … it’s a passing league.”

The Falcons will be without nine players that accounted for 28.3% of the defensive snaps in their rout of the Packers. Only two, suspended cornerback Jalen Collins and aging pass rusher Dwight Freeney, will be missed.

Seven of Atlanta’s 25 players on defense didn’t play in the title game. The common denominator for all seven is good speed.

“They have some tremendous guys as far as with speed,” Packers’ offensive coordinator Edgar Bennett said at mid-week. “They fly around … that jumps off the tape … and they do a nice job trying to get the ball out.”

Rodgers dissected Quinn’s new-look defense until the final decisive minute in Game 7 last season, putting up a 125.5 rating in a 33-32 defeat. He ran six times for 60 yards as Quinn decided to rush only three 10 times.

By the title game, Campbell was acclimated enough to play 57 of the 68 snaps alongside Jones, who played 64. Everywhere Rodgers or the ball were, they were lurking nearby.

“We had a really good game plan,” Campbell said afterward. “We always had somebody spying him making sure he wasn’t able to escape the pocket and make plays. Having a guy who was able to chase him down so he wasn’t able to just cleanly run around and make plays.”

Sometimes the man assigned to Rodgers was Jones, and sometimes it was Campbell. At least five times Beasley pulled off his rush against Bryan Bulaga, moved toward the middle and acted as the spy.

It was 3rd-and-4 on the Packers’ first possession when Jones, in his role as spy, saw a hole opening in the Green Bay front. From his starting position four yards behind the line he accelerated instantly and, in merely 2.4 seconds, was all over Rodgers, who had to shift the ball abruptly into throwing position before tossing it away.

In the fourth quarter, Campbell was spying as Jones was blitzing. Rodgers scrambled left and then could do little other than dump it because Campbell had cut him off at the pass. Campbell shoved Rodgers hard after the play.

A few plays later, with Jones dropping in coverage, Campbell sat watching Rodgers until he broke out. Campbell burst in again, taking away all of Rodgers’ options. Seemingly exhausted, Rodgers fell on his backside without being touched after another no-chance incompletion.

“I thought that was a big factor in the game,” Campbell said of the successful spying.

When there was no man assigned to Rodgers, big plays happened. Rodgers casually extended right, giving Randall Cobb time to clear for 22. Ditto for a 26-yard toss to Jared Cook and a 28-yard scramble up the middle by Rodgers.

Late in the game, Beasley cut off Rodgers as the spy but he got the ball out to Cobb for 34.

Even though their rare speed at linebacker enables Quinn and Manuel to station their spy at considerable depth, they can’t afford to spy in every passing situation. That would take someone away from the rush or someone away from coverage, and few defenses are powerful enough to afford that.

The Falcons, however, probably are optimistic about their chances to harass Rodgers with a four-man rush, especially because crowd noise will be on their side. They know Beasley, McKinley (6-2, 250, 4.60) and all three linebackers can run down Rodgers, who ran 4.73 in February 2005 but looked markedly slower than that as he failed to gain much, if any, ground in an attempt to chase down Seattle defensive tackle Nazair Jones (6-5, 304, 5.11) on his interception Sunday.

If a linebacker goes down, Quinn probably will insert rookie free agent Jermaine Grace (6-1, 223), another pygmy-sized defender with blazing speed (4.56).

“Atlanta’s defense is fast and can cover space quickly while having two speed rushers to harass Rodgers from the edge,” an NFC personnel director said Tuesday. “They’ll also have someone spying Rodgers in the middle of the field to somewhat keep him from doing too much damage moving around.”

Can the Packers win in conventional offensive mode with Rodgers staying put and throwing basic routes to his stable of talented receivers? Although the sheer size of Martellus Bennett could affect their tiny linebackers in the flats and hook zones, the Falcons still would love to find out.

The title game was by far Rodgers’ poorest performance against Atlanta after six straight good-to-exceptional outings. The Packers have the firepower to beat any opponent, and the Falcons have coverage weaknesses and what could be a weak link at right guard in young Wes Schweitzer that could undermine their entire attack.

If the Falcons, however, can at least partially deny Rodgers the freedom to move in and out of the pocket with impunity, their path to victory would become much clearer.

The post Packers, Rodgers must combat Falcons’ speed and spies appeared first on Bob McGinn Football.

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Rodgers vs Falcon defense. This is the game changer. If Rodgers finds their coverage weaknesses in the 5-15 yard zone, the Packers win this one. If he doesn't, and he has to rely on passes on the flats, or the deep throws, it could be a long, and unhappy day, for all of us. It's those passes that will freeze linebackers, and force the Falcons to play tighter, and allow us to use the back shoulder throws and longer routes, as the game wears on.

If we can't establish these passes, Rodgers may be running for his life, and that is what I fear most, not only from a scoring perspective, but the potential for him getting injured.

As far as our running game, forget about it. It's shown, no go.

On defense, if we can stop their running game, and keep Ryan in check, we can win.

In all honesty, I don't see this as a Packer win, but I also don't see it as the end of the world either. I didn't expect us to go 2-0 after the first two games. But, if it happens, I'll be ecstatic.
 
Same result as last year. Atlanta dominated.
 
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