Have we reached a ceiling on buyouts?
We may be watching the coaching contract landscape beginning to change in real-time, outside of the very top of the market.
In recent weeks, Florida State, Wisconsin, Maryland and Baylor have all announced that their coaches — Mike Norvell, Luke Fickell, Mike Locksley and Dave Aranda — are coming back for 2026. The news was met with groans from their respective fan bases, but in an era where players are getting paid, schools outside the richest tier are finally showing there is a limit to how much they’re willing to commit to pay to start over with a new coach.
The theme here is money and a desire not to spend it to fire someone right now. Norvell had a $59 million buyout and Fickell $25 million, both with offsets, while Locksley’s was $13 million with no offset and half due within 60 days. (Aranda’s buyout is not known because Baylor is a private university, but the school is also dealing with an athletic director change). If you think this evolving change is bad news for coaches, it’s actually the opposite.
“The buyout is there to protect the coach,” as one coaching agent put it. “That means it’s working.”
These coaches will get more time to get it right. The richest of schools (LSU, Penn State, etc.) will continue to spend whatever it takes, agents say, but other schools are trying to figure out how to be more fiscally responsible and not lock themselves into a coach they may sour on. One option could be shorter contracts with more money up front.
“I think assistant salaries will be suppressed and the personnel (staff) bubble will burst,” the agent said. “Schools are going to get smarter about the length and take protection on the back end, because there’s so much parity. That’s what’s been going on in FCS for years. They’re not giving out long deals.”
Driving this approach is the need to find as much money as possible for players. Wisconsin and Maryland said as much in their announcements, while Florida State will also make changes to its front office department. But can you convince fans to pay up for players if they don’t believe in the coach?
“Donors are tired of you going back to them for this,” the agent said.
But top-20 seasons at Texas Tech and Virginia this year should be proof of how investing in the roster can make a difference regardless of the coach.
As much as people want things to change, not everyone is convinced the leverage shift from coaches to players has changed enough yet.
“I doubt anything really changes,” a second agent said. “Maybe some schools and coaches will get a little more creative with front-loading contracts, but as of right now, the only way to continue to bring in big names is offer big money if it doesn’t work out. That’s the consideration some of these schools are having. They don’t want to be on the hook for the buyout money, while also having to promise another coach probably even more buyout money.”
New contracts are becoming more incentive-laden
The idea that schools should make contracts more incentive-based rather than guarantee-based is at least halfway playing out in the new contracts that have been signed so far this fall. That is, there are certainly a lot more incentives in this year’s crop of deals.
Take James Franklin’s letter of intent with Virginia Tech signed last week. Per the letter, Franklin will receive a $9.5 million pool for 10 assistant coaches and $6 million pool for support staff, but those numbers can increase with all kinds of accomplishments (along with bonuses for himself). Winning as little as six games in his first year would increase the assistant pool by a bonus of $200k and the support staff pool by $125k for a year, with escalating increases with more wins. Even ACC Championship Game appearances up to a national championship can further grow that pool with bonuses, separate from Franklin’s own pay.
Matt Rhule’s new extension at Nebraska stipulates he can receive a $1 million base salary raise for making the Playoff. That one is cumulative, meaning the raise for one CFP appearance applies to every remaining year on the deal. Rhule’s contract was extended, but without any non-incentive raises.
And as mentioned in this notebook a few weeks ago, Curt Cignetti’s new Indiana contract includes a good faith effort clause to make him a top-three paid coach if Indiana makes a CFP semifinal. That could be especially notable with Lane Kiffin’s raise coming from whatever school he chooses.
