Dominos and Wild Cards

Terranimal

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Have done drafts since 90's. Would collaborate w ppl like Rob Rang and ghost write for him(days before he was with CBS) and did drafts for sites where was also a Mod or Admin like Packer Report and help start the Packer site at Rivals, as well as other sites long gone.

The point am getting at is that through all these years, can't ever remember a year where no one has a clue what teams will pick or direction they are leaning.

Even Jags w first pick could go one of 5 players. This the domino effect as it starts with the first pick and goes from there.

On top of that don't seem to ever recall where ratings on players are all over the boards. Have seen players in late round 1 go extreme as to early round 3. One player an example of this is DL John Hall and there are others.

What I think part of the problem causing this is very few ppl do their homework if breaking down video on players or even know what to look for if they do. Unfortunately we have lost the old school guys you could trust and very few are left. Like we have discussed many times over recent years, it's a copycat web out there.

You can't make a fair assessment of a player from a YouTube 2 minute highlight video. Likewise, can't go off just combine workouts or let that rule over what is seen on field.

Another factor might be the old term of one hand washes the other. Have no proof of this, but as someone who has had small businesses and worked in the entertainment industry for 22 years back when, it just makes sense to me that there would be an agent influence here too. They do it with free agency and rumors, so why would potential draft picks with millions of dollars at stake they wouldn't do that same? That's their job to get their clients the best deal they can and at same time means more dollars and prestige for the agent. Was that way in the entertainment industry w musicians and actors.

So back to current draft. Part of the problem this year is this year is no Elway or Manning or Luck as clear cut top dog QB number one pick.

While maybe the top 20 players are set, where they go isn't and also a possibility one or more could go later when other factors are entered in. More on that in a minute.

But with no clear cut number one opinions are varied. Everyone pretty much agrees who the top 3 Edge rushers are, the top 2 Corners, and top 2 OTs. But opinions vary on who is top in each of those positions and who takes who.

Now enter the Wild Cards: QBs. While most everyone agrees that none of this year's class would have been chosen over the 5 taken in round one last year and most also think only one might be able to play right away with the caveat that is with a supporting cast and running game in place.

Still there are teams without that QB on their current rosters. As of as recently as two weeks back there was some mocks that has no QBs taken round one.

However with that 5th year option will be tempting for teams to pull the trigger or maybe try to trade back into late round one.

For sure there will be at least one QB taken round one by Carolina as they have no second round pick. This is where the Wild Cards come into play. If some team lives and wants a QB and wants ahead of Carolina as maybe the same player. From Carolina on will be interesting if any other team selects a QB or not and how many go round one. It is thought 1-4 could go round one despite them maybe not having first round grades.

The Wild Cards could help out the Packer draft by maybe some player they wanted be on the board at one of the picks that wasn't expected to be. Either way this should be an interesting draft to watch again this year.
 
Agree it's a weird year. That's largely caused by the lack of a dominant QB or two at the top to anchor the draft, as you suggest. It's also a little odd because there is no "dominant" Edge player or interior DL. Similarly the OT class, while good at the top is 3 guys who are pretty similarly ranked. The result is a muddled top-10. Still, those 10 are fairly clear, just not a very solid agreement on their order.

For the Packers sake, it would be great if 2-3 teams are desperate enough for a QB to take one in the top-20. Not sure any of them are worth it but here's hoping. It might also benefit the Packers if someone is looking to slide up into the back-end of Rd 1 to get a QB. Depending on who's there, a trade-down could be very attractive.
 
One more wild card is the amount of players in the pool due to the “Super Senior “ rule. More played are being evaluated. The QB thing is obviously true but this a draft where 1-10 is probably the so called elite tier and 11-50 might not be much separation leading to different opinions
 
One more wild card is the amount of players in the pool due to the “Super Senior “ rule. More played are being evaluated. The QB thing is obviously true but this a draft where 1-10 is probably the so called elite tier and 11-50 might not be much separation leading to different opinions
Thanks Pack forgot about that Super Senior rule.
 
Over the past 15 years, I've hit on a lot of these picks or drawn a complete blank only to find out GB had some of my folks targeted but they were gone. It's a crapshoot...fun but a crapshoot nonetheless.

I really don't believe in "wildcards" or "late risers" Most teams, 95% had their board set a couple of months ago and the only up/down would be medical or off-field red flags. It's really in a nutshell about how the board falls and who moves up/down and screws it up.tc(hof(
 
Over the past 15 years, I've hit on a lot of these picks or drawn a complete blank only to find out GB had some of my folks targeted but they were gone. It's a crapshoot...fun but a crapshoot nonetheless.

I really don't believe in "wildcards" or "late risers" Most teams, 95% had their board set a couple of months ago and the only up/down would be medical or off-field red flags. It's really in a nutshell about how the board falls and who moves up/down and screws it up.tc(hof(
I'll address both Pack from the other thread and Mark here on risers and fallers.

As to the fallers as Mark said it is usually medical or off field stuff that unless working for an NFL team won't be privy to when you see some higher rated player on mock boards fall a round or more or even in the same round like Randy Moss did.

As for risers, seems there are always some darling from Combine that some team(s) get giddy over or a good player and then combine backs up on field and they shoot up the board some.

But as a general rule what I have found is that how players are rated before Combine and Pro Days is what ratings go back to before draft.

In agreement on team boards, especially now days where think every team has a good scout staff. Don't know how many use National or Blesto scouting services anymore.
 
I'll address both Pack from the other thread and Mark here on risers and fallers.

As to the fallers as Mark said it is usually medical or off field stuff that unless working for an NFL team won't be privy to when you see some higher rated player on mock boards fall a round or more or even in the same round like Randy Moss did.

As for risers, seems there are always some darling from Combine that some team(s) get giddy over or a good player and then combine backs up on field and they shoot up the board some.

But as a general rule what I have found is that how players are rated before Combine and Pro Days is what ratings go back to before draft.

In agreement on team boards, especially now days where think every team has a good scout staff. Don't know how many use National or Blesto scouting services anymore.
A couple of things both related, you don't see those darlings like you used to because in part two no one uses the "scouting services" like they used to. Almost every player in this draft group has a video going back to HS that is available.

Every HS/College in America is using Hudl or other similar products I or you can tap into and review in some cases 8 years of video on them in-game situations, even practiced and scrimmage tape. Yes, everyone scouts but a lot more work is done in each team's HQ and video dept than on the road now. Good posts T! br)
 
Wow now I can relate to when Wolf left and said the game had passed him by.

In my case it's becoming a dinosaur as not all up to speed on the digital era, tools, and technology. Thanks for the info Mark.
 
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