Draft: Importance of Day 1/ Two Deep

Terranimal

Terranimal

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Have posted this on other sites over the years and decided to repost and revisit here for any person with a serious interest in the draft.
Ourlads.com/day one

If wanting to skip reading entire and lengthy article, scan down to the chart which gives best odds for finding starters at all positions and 2 deeps (aka udfa). Also what rounds gives best odds finding starters.
 
Great article.. Really shows how you have to nail your first/second round picks and not overdraft/try to fit square peg in round hole.. I know, easier said than done....

The second thing that stood out was
It’s truly shocking that so much great talent is found in undrafted free agency. A lot of that talent doesn’t walk into rookie camp and take a two-deep spot right away. No, they become good because of coaching, hard-hat determination, and a drive to succeed. Nevertheless, udfas come at a much cheaper price than any pick before the 6th round – they need to be cultivated.
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This speaks to what i've been saying for years, that Tt and MM were a bad combo who because of Arod would seem like they were good enough, but didn't fit well.. MM doesn't have the staff to coach up raw players, and TT doesn't have the talent to give MM players that don't need a lot intensive of coaching..
 
What's interesting is that TT wasn't always known for trying to fit square pegs in round holes. For his first couple years he was the opposite - he drafted strong route running WR, which is a WCO thing. He drafted players for Bates' D at first and for Capers' D when he came around. I think 2010 was when things started to change, he drafted Mike Neal in the 2nd when he was clearly a juiced up skinny guy forced to play DE. Then in 2011 we got "no feet" Sherrod in the 1st and Cobb in the 2nd - and while Cobb has been a good player he's not a strong route runner. Then Alex Green - a wide open spread offense RB - in the 3rd, he had no business being in the system.

You can go draft by draft from then on and see guys that just didn't fit, in body type or skill set, what we all knew Capers and MM wanted to do. I mean, MM begs for years for a tall athletic TE to go down the seam and we got a parade of DJ Williams and Richard Rodgers and these squatty H-back types, and plodding Marty Bennett. Just weird.

My biggest hope with Gutey is that right away in the draft we see him drafting for what the team and O/D systems actually NEED. You can criticize MM's offense or Pettine's D system all you want and you can be right to, but if they're not given the players to make it work, what's the point? They have no chance regardless.
 
rpiotr01 said:
What's interesting is that TT wasn't always known for trying to fit square pegs in round holes. For his first couple years he was the opposite - he drafted strong route running WR, which is a WCO thing. He drafted players for Bates' D at first and for Capers' D when he came around. I think 2010 was when things started to change, he drafted Mike Neal in the 2nd when he was clearly a juiced up skinny guy forced to play DE. Then in 2011 we got "no feet" Sherrod in the 1st and Cobb in the 2nd - and while Cobb has been a good player he's not a strong route runner. Then Alex Green - a wide open spread offense RB - in the 3rd, he had no business being in the system.

You can go draft by draft from then on and see guys that just didn't fit, in body type or skill set, what we all knew Capers and MM wanted to do. I mean, MM begs for years for a tall athletic TE to go down the seam and we got a parade of DJ Williams and Richard Rodgers and these squatty H-back types, and plodding Marty Bennett. Just weird.

My biggest hope with Gutey is that right away in the draft we see him drafting for what the team and O/D systems actually NEED. You can criticize MM's offense or Pettine's D system all you want and you can be right to, but if they're not given the players to make it work, what's the point? They have no chance regardless.
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Exactly R.. TT and MM seemed to have different visions of what they wanted the team to be.. MM has a system in mind. TT just went out and got "players" (every time I heard him say that during draft I wanted to puke) regardless of potential fit etc....
 
I believe Ted said he drafts atheltes and was up to the coaches to figure out how to use them. Ted rarely looked at fit. He said ok this guy has a ton of talent does not matter if he's a 4-3 DE coaches can make him work as a 3-4 OLB. I think had Ted took more time to ask his coaches thoughts on players and used that there would have been better drafting of fits in the early rounds of players.
 
Since on the TT topic and revisiting this, there was another aspect too.

TT's staff through the SB was intact. After that he started losing people. Look around last few years and who was there to counter him on player choices and think Ted got to the point to where he took it all upon himself maybe instead of trusting his staff?
 
Terranimal said:
Since on the TT topic and revisiting this, there was another aspect too.

TT's staff through the SB was intact. After that he started losing people. Look around last few years and who was there to counter him on player choices and think Ted got to the point to where he took it all upon himself maybe instead of trusting his staff?
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I think we'll eventually find out about the end of the TT era. Pure speculation on my part but I think there was something medically wrong with Ted. He just did not seem with it and the way the power structure was, no one other than Murphy, was going to persuade Ted. The loss of his top guys hurt but their departure may shed light on what was really going on. The power structure has now changed and that wasn't by accident. TT, imo, wasn't operating at full capacity.
 
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GBP4EVER said:
I believe Ted said he drafts atheltes and was up to the coaches to figure out how to use them. Ted rarely looked at fit. He said ok this guy has a ton of talent does not matter if he's a 4-3 DE coaches can make him work as a 3-4 OLB. I think had Ted took more time to ask his coaches thoughts on players and used that there would have been better drafting of fits in the early rounds of players.
Click to expand...

I agree, and that was unfair to MM and his assistants. This isn't HS, teams don't have the time/luxury to spend years coaching up players for a new position or system. Now one guy every once in awhile that showed promise? Sure, but not first and second rounders. Coaches have a hard enough time coaching up players to make the jump from college to the NFL in their normal positions.

Consider how many needs the Packers have. They should be able to find somebody in the first two rounds to draft at those positions who won't need years of remodeling. DT, OLB, DB, OT, etc... Gutey has a nice variety of guys to look at.
 
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