Draft Thoughts: Mock 35

Terranimal

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35 you ask? Yes, actually have done about 50 of them since the Combine. Seems everytime was going to post one, some big deal went down of a signing, trading a star player or recently Saints trading w Philly.

There are 22 teams drafting in round one w many having multiple picks and 11 teams w no first round picks.

Risers and fallers....Trevon Walker has rose to top 10 and could go as high as one overall. WR Olave seems to be rising up boards and very unlikely to be there at 22 for us. Jameson Williams is back up high in the draft as recent medicals are positive and looking like he will be ready by training camp. As for falling and by no fault of his own could be Nakobe Dean due to him not having ideal height for the position, still think he goes but it is a possible might be there. Same w WR London and just don't see it, but if he's there at 22 Gute better send that card up as fast as possible and if he selects Dotson over London, I'm done w Packers until Murphy and Gute are gone.

Background: I have neither the time nor the resources to invest in video to breakdown players anymore. But what I do is watched a ton of games and took down notes on players that stood out and watched positions think could be of need. Ideally like to get to see at least 3 games. Also while most of ppl trusted for info are gone, still a couple left that trust for players haven't seen and Guage against what have.

Also have formulas for digesting combine results for various positions for say power, explosion, quickness that was lucky enough to get off a former NFL and college scout 25 years ago.

Something new this year was seeing so many players being interviewed on GMFB and other shows. It's not their answers but reading body language off what a prosecutor taught me years back.

The last part is survey every mock can get to see out there to get a law of averages for where a player high and low for rds to get drafted and Guage against my own ratings.

So in the Wolf era would do mocks trying to guess who we would draft and did okay through rd4. In Thompson era changed how have done mocks since. Do mocks based on players and ones think would fit and what TT should do vs what think will do. My mocks were maybe 50/50, however my big board was 80-90%. Must admit in Gute's couple of drafts have been clueless. Hopefully it's back to high percentage off my big board and maybe some luck on the Mock.

This Mock is a combination of players I have for Pack and players they have shown interest in which can mean something or nothing.R

Round one: If one of these players are there at 22 or 28 am running the card in as off recently should be off the board. DL Wyatt, WR London, WR Olave, WR Wilson.

RD1 A: WR Treylon Burks Ark
6-2 225 4.5 40

RD1 B: LB Nakobe Dean Georgia 5-11 230 4.6 40

RD2 A TE Jelani Woods Virginia 6-7 255 4.6 40
Another player on the rise. Benched more then any TE at 24. Willing blocker though needs to learn to get a bit lower in his blocks. In a game of mismatches his combination of size and speed gives another weapon.

Note: Wanted a WR here and in order had 3 Watson, Pickens, and Pierce. Really high on Watson like was on Kupp years ago and many have him Rd 1 and if Burks and others off board at 22 would take him though he played lessor competition still has size, hands, decent route runner and was also a returner and played special teams. Having 4.3 40 time doesn't hurt at 6-3 either.

RD2 B: OT Nicholas Petit Free
Ohio St 6-5 316. Has played both LT and RT, has quick feet, good at getting to second level.

RD3: CB Cam Taylor Britt Nebraska 5-11 200 4.3 A physical corner that could become a Shut down Corner in time.

RD4 A: DL John Ridgeway Arkansas 6-5 321 Can play either DL position good at collapsing the pocket and run stopper(something we have had problems with) Clark isn't getting younger and we need to improve the DL imo.

RD4 B: WR Eric Ezukanma Texas Tech 6-2 210 Strong WR w strong hands, able to catch deep and contested balls, good route runner, can move the chains. Only thing don't know is his workout numbers but at this point of the draft a good player is a good player. Also depends what team thinks about current players on team. But we did lose 3 this year.

RD5 Edge Amar'e Barno Virginia Tech 6-5 250 4.3 40
Admit don't have info on him and took him here based on where slotted in Mocks and because of Packer visit. But that size and speed combo is intriguing.

RD6 FB/RB/TE/ST Conner Heyward Mich 5-11 233 4.7 40
Personal pick of mine. Son of Ironhead and brother plays for Steelers. Swiss Army knife. Can play gunner, has returned both kicks and punts also.

RD7: WR Quan Thornton Baylor
6-1 187 4.31 40

Another player that Pack brought in and could be that deep threat. Don't have personal knowledge on him other then article read on another Packer news site which can't put much in.

UDFAs: Don't know if these players get drafted or not. The first one had in Rd 4 and 5 for us in other mocks.

From HBCU:

Safety Will Adams Virginia At
6-1 200 4.5 40 40"vert 10-3 broad 21 reps of 225. Had a good 3 come too and is fluid.

RB Ezra Grey Alabama A&M
KR/PR/RB 4.3 40 38.5 vert 10-3 broad
 
35 you ask? Yes, actually have done about 50 of them since the Combine. Seems everytime was going to post one, some big deal went down of a signing, trading a star player or recently Saints trading w Philly.

There are 22 teams drafting in round one w many having multiple picks and 11 teams w no first round picks.

Risers and fallers....Trevon Walker has rose to top 10 and could go as high as one overall. WR Olave seems to be rising up boards and very unlikely to be there at 22 for us. Jameson Williams is back up high in the draft as recent medicals are positive and looking like he will be ready by training camp. As for falling and by no fault of his own could be Nakobe Dean due to him not having ideal height for the position, still think he goes but it is a possible might be there. Same w WR London and just don't see it, but if he's there at 22 Gute better send that card up as fast as possible and if he selects Dotson over London, I'm done w Packers until Murphy and Gute are gone.

Background: I have neither the time nor the resources to invest in video to breakdown players anymore. But what I do is watched a ton of games and took down notes on players that stood out and watched positions think could be of need. Ideally like to get to see at least 3 games. Also while most of ppl trusted for info are gone, still a couple left that trust for players haven't seen and Guage against what have.

Also have formulas for digesting combine results for various positions for say power, explosion, quickness that was lucky enough to get off a former NFL and college scout 25 years ago.

Something new this year was seeing so many players being interviewed on GMFB and other shows. It's not their answers but reading body language off what a prosecutor taught me years back.

The last part is survey every mock can get to see out there to get a law of averages for where a player high and low for rds to get drafted and Guage against my own ratings.

So in the Wolf era would do mocks trying to guess who we would draft and did okay through rd4. In Thompson era changed how have done mocks since. Do mocks based on players and ones think would fit and what TT should do vs what think will do. My mocks were maybe 50/50, however my big board was 80-90%. Must admit in Gute's couple of drafts have been clueless. Hopefully it's back to high percentage off my big board and maybe some luck on the Mock.

This Mock is a combination of players I have for Pack and players they have shown interest in which can mean something or nothing.R

Round one: If one of these players are there at 22 or 28 am running the card in as off recently should be off the board. DL Wyatt, WR London, WR Olave, WR Wilson.

RD1 A: WR Treylon Burks Ark
6-2 225 4.5 40

RD1 B: LB Nakobe Dean Georgia 5-11 230 4.6 40

RD2 A TE Jelani Woods Virginia 6-7 255 4.6 40
Another player on the rise. Benched more then any TE at 24. Willing blocker though needs to learn to get a bit lower in his blocks. In a game of mismatches his combination of size and speed gives another weapon.

Note: Wanted a WR here and in order had 3 Watson, Pickens, and Pierce. Really high on Watson like was on Kupp years ago and many have him Rd 1 and if Burks and others off board at 22 would take him though he played lessor competition still has size, hands, decent route runner and was also a returner and played special teams. Having 4.3 40 time doesn't hurt at 6-3 either.

RD2 B: OT Nicholas Petit Free
Ohio St 6-5 316. Has played both LT and RT, has quick feet, good at getting to second level.

RD3: CB Cam Taylor Britt Nebraska 5-11 200 4.3 A physical corner that could become a Shut down Corner in time.

RD4 A: DL John Ridgeway Arkansas 6-5 321 Can play either DL position good at collapsing the pocket and run stopper(something we have had problems with) Clark isn't getting younger and we need to improve the DL imo.

RD4 B: WR Eric Ezukanma Texas Tech 6-2 210 Strong WR w strong hands, able to catch deep and contested balls, good route runner, can move the chains. Only thing don't know is his workout numbers but at this point of the draft a good player is a good player. Also depends what team thinks about current players on team. But we did lose 3 this year.

RD5 Edge Amar'e Barno Virginia Tech 6-5 250 4.3 40
Admit don't have info on him and took him here based on where slotted in Mocks and because of Packer visit. But that size and speed combo is intriguing.

RD6 FB/RB/TE/ST Conner Heyward Mich 5-11 233 4.7 40
Personal pick of mine. Son of Ironhead and brother plays for Steelers. Swiss Army knife. Can play gunner, has returned both kicks and punts also.

RD7: WR Quan Thornton Baylor
6-1 187 4.31 40

Another player that Pack brought in and could be that deep threat. Don't have personal knowledge on him other then article read on another Packer news site which can't put much in.

UDFAs: Don't know if these players get drafted or not. The first one had in Rd 4 and 5 for us in other mocks.

From HBCU:

Safety Will Adams Virginia At
6-1 200 4.5 40 40"vert 10-3 broad 21 reps of 225. Had a good 3 come too and is fluid.

RB Ezra Grey Alabama A&M
KR/PR/RB 4.3 40 38.5 vert 10-3 broad
One thing I have learned over the years is that “risers & fallers” are more media driven than reality of how organizations evaluate players. There is enough data points / film that one combine or pro day is not going to drastically shuffle the boards which honestly nobody but inside the organization knows what those boards look like. Even the known interest thing is all over the place , GB never even had Alexander on the public radar.
 
I've done a pile of mocks myself using the PFF and TheDraftNetwork simulators as well as looking at a couple dozen mocks on various sites. While I'm not suggesting any of them are right, between them what you figure out is that things could fall any number of ways. I think there is a small chance Olave, Williams, London or Wilson are there. I agree Terra that Burks is the most likely candidate to be there for the Packers in Rd 1. I have mixed feelings about him but think ML can find a way to make him work in the offense.

I'm kinda thinking that this becomes an early, mid, late draft for WR for the Packers. There seem to be some fits in each tier of the draft. After WR, I'm feeling pretty strongly that safety is high on their wish list along with Edge, DL and OL. Beyond that I think they'll do the usual and grab guys as they see fits at points in the draft. Beyond that, I'll throw up a prediction mock with the idea that I'll be lucky to get one guy right and he'll be in the wrong round.

FlaPack is right about those riser and fallers. They probably rose and fell weeks/months ago on team boards. The rest is just the media trying to create stories and play catch-up.
 
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