How important is 1st Seed?

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oakleaf

oakleaf

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How important is 1st Seed to the Packers? I am bringing this up because I heard a sports announcer say after the Packer game that it wasn't that big because of no true homefield advantage this year due to COVID.

He missed the whole picture. It is a HUGE advantage. Yes, homefield advantage is a smaller advantage this year, but he has missed other benefits to the #1 Seed this year for the Packers (or any team that gets it).

Bye week is the same as an automatic win. Plus, it gives the Pack a chance to rest their players that week. In addition, the team that gets the bye plays the lowest seeded team in the following playoff week which means the Pack will not be playing either the second or third seeded teams (Saints or Seahawks). And finally, only ONE team in both the NFC and AFC gets this advantage.

Assuming worst case of 2, 3, and 5 seeds winning (Saints and Seahawks both win, and TB beats Washington) TB does have to go through GB in January. We win, and the next opponent faces the same weather in the Championship playoff week.
 
I still believe that forcing the playoffs through GB makes the Packers the favorite to go all the way to the Super Bowl game.

It's not a guarantee for the big one, which we would probably be huge underdogs, but it is an avenue for success.

If people are really interested in how well the Packers are going to do in the playoffs, they might stay glued to next week's Packer game against the Titans. Advance weather forecasts call for the temp to be in the mid 20s, with a 7 MPH wind. Not super cold, but cold enough that it will effect some of the players.

To be honest, I think a lot of us have been selling this team short all year. They've already exceeded what we thought they'd accomplish, and they aren't done yet.
 
TW said:
I still believe that forcing the playoffs through GB makes the Packers the favorite to go all the way to the Super Bowl game.

It's not a guarantee for the big one, which we would probably be huge underdogs, but it is an avenue for success.

If people are really interested in how well the Packers are going to do in the playoffs, they might stay glued to next week's Packer game against the Titans. Advance weather forecasts call for the temp to be in the mid 20s, with a 7 MPH wind. Not super cold, but cold enough that it will effect some of the players.

To be honest, I think a lot of us have been selling this team short all year. They've already exceeded what we thought they'd accomplish, and they aren't done yet.
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Most years yes, but not this season. There is no home-field advantage and remember Covid protocols are still in place. That's the reality of where we are at.
 
I apologize, I don't think I've made my point clear. Yes, I agree fellas. Due to COVID, the only home field advantage is weather. And I'm not sure that's really much of an advantage in the playoffs.

My point is that there are significant other reasons that make HFA very important for the Packers. Only one team gets to rest players for a week, gets the "automatic" win, and comes back the following week to play the LOWEST seeded team. And then forcing the Championship game opponent to come through Green Bay does have some advantage. That is why I think it's important to get #1 Seed. I do see a better than 50% chance of being NFC champions if we do, and unlikely if we don't get it.

Also, whatever team is the NFC champion this year will be a huge SB underdog.


rpiot --> The Aaron Rodgers era Packers are 30-5 at Lambeau in December. Six times more likely to win is a big advantage. Three of those five losses did come recently - 2017 and 2018. However, it does appear they've righted that ship since then.
 
nobody likes it when i posts stats, so i won't. the packers are significantly better in games played in lambeau this year. fans in the stands, or lack thereof, has not completely erased home field advantage in 2020. and for all of the other reasons that oak listed, i agree that the #1 seed is important. not having to play in the first round. not having to play any of the top seeds in the second round. an extra week for our players to recover. not having to travel. those are all advantages that have nothing to do with how many people are in the stadium.
 
realitybytes said:
nobody likes it when i posts stats, so i won't. the packers are significantly better in games played in lambeau this year. fans in the stands, or lack thereof, has not completely erased home field advantage in 2020. and for all of the other reasons that oak listed, i agree that the #1 seed is important. not having to play in the first round. not having to play any of the top seeds in the second round. an extra week for our players to recover. not having to travel. those are all advantages that have nothing to do with how many people are in the stadium.
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Significantly not sure. That team looked very average vs. Minnesota, Atlanta, Jax & Carolina at home and Philadelphia was much closer than it should have been. On the flip side @ Minnesota @ Houston @ SF @ NOLA was more complete.

And my main reason is there is no dominant or even a KC type team in the NFC. NOLA, Arizona, Seattle are not easy matchups and LA matchup wise scares the hell out of me. And Tampa defensively causes issues.
 
How many #1 seeds in the last ten years have gone on to win the SB?
 
Older, but it does point some things out.


While the NFL is (rightfully) known for having parity, that has not extended recently to the postseason. The past 5 Super Bowls have all been won by a 1 seed, and nine of the ten teams to play in the Super Bowl over that timespan have been 1 seeds.
2013: 1. Seahawks def. 1. Broncos
2014: 1. Patriots def. 1. Seahawks
2015: 1. Broncos def. 1. Panthers
2016: 1. Patriots def. 2. Falcons
2017: 1. Eagles def. 1. Patriots
If a 1 seed were to win this year, it would tie 1981-1986 for the longest streak of 1 seeds winning Super Bowls.
The dominance of the favorites extends beyond just reaching the Super Bowl, however. Over this timespan, just five teams (2013 49ers, 2014 Colts, 2016 Packers & Steelers, 2017 Jags) who played on Wild Card Weekend managed to just reach the conference championship game. They lost by an average of 18 points per game. By comparison, in the five years prior to this streak (2012-2008), 8 teams reached conference championships (2008 Cardinals, Eagles, & Ravens, 2009 Jets, 2010 Jets & Packers, 2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens) and they only lost by 0.25 points per game.
Additionally, 1 seeds went one and done six times between 2008-2012 (2008 Titans & Giants, 2010 Patriots & Falcons, 2011 Packers, 2012 Broncos) and posted an overall playoff record of 8-9, with five of those wins being contributed by 2009 Saints and Colts. By comparison, between 2013-2017, 1 seeds have gone an astonishing 23-5, with four of those losses coming against fellow 1 seeds (the lone exception was the 2016 Cowboys, who lost to Green Bay in the divisional round).
Home field advantage throughout the playoffs has (seemingly) become increasingly important over the past five years. Do you expect that trend to continue, or will the playoffs become a bit less predictable as time moves on?
 
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