Packers 2015 season PFF analysis - DL and LBs

salmar80

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My second to last PFF analysis post, this time with more controversy! hgh)

I analyze players with >25% snaps, since they're comparable with the rest of the league. Playoffs games are included.

DE Mike Daniels +46.9, 3rd/57 3-4DEs - With no sign of contract hangover, Daniels was just a beast. His grades and production have improved every season. If he keeps this pace up, he'll beat JJ Watt in a year or two wideeye)) . Graded 4th best pass rushing. Measured by pressure per snap, he was 7th in pass rush productivity (PRP), creating 7 sacks and whopping 53 total pressures. Equally good vs the run, graded 3rd and was 14th in run stop percentage. Lived in the backfield for tackles for loss, and had impressive 35 solo run stops. Missed only 3 tackles all year.

DE Datone Jones +5.3, 27th/57 3-4DEs - Too hastily called a bust, Datone is starting to live up to his high draft status. Is another one who has clearly improved year after year. Was used as a elephant OLB late, and graded OK there. As a DE, he was a pass rushing force in limited snaps (430). Graded 22nd in pass rushing, and impressive 9th in PRP. Produced 3 sacks and 30 total pressures. Had by far his best season vs the run, grading 28th. Has earned himself more snaps.

DE Mike Pennel +4.4, 32nd/57 3-4DEs - The athletic former UDFA took a big jump in every way, and probably earned a chance at a starting role. Played just 285 snaps and didn't rush much, but did it well, grading 25th with a sack and 9 total pressures. More impressive than that was his run D acumen. Graded 33rd, but had the 5th best run stop percentage (10.6%), meaning he had a solo stop every 10 snaps :). We'll see how he fares in a bigger role, but whatta find by TT!

DE Letroy Guion +3.3, 39th/57 3-4DEs - The mass of muscle bounced back from a drug-related suspension to have marginally his best year, especially as a run-stuffer. Graded just 37th pass rushing, producing 12 pressures, but was 25th vs the run. Used more to take up blockers than to make plays, finished 49th in run stop %.

NT BJ Raji -8.8, 62nd/70 DT/NTs - While Q likes to shoot in the air, BJ just loves to shoot himself in the foot. Had his last chance to enter UFA and earn some serious $$$, and he blew it! Again!! Started the year well, but his production and grades took a big nosedive after week 11. Unreported injury? He surely didn't play enough snaps to wear down (510/1214)! Was a pretty good rusher, ranking 27th in PRP, generated a sack and 15 total pressures. But he sucked against the run (59th). His run stop percentage on 226 run snaps was 3.1%, ranking 4th worst. To be fair, his usual role was to take on double teams. Missed 7 tackles, more than ever before. He now has ONE year "in the green" (>+1) in his career and all others bad or worse. This wasn't his worst season, but he'll face a disappointed market... EDIT: Raji suffered a groin injury in week 5, which never fully healed. JS quote Dec 25th: "I started off pretty hot," Raji said this week. "I would say I haven't been able to move the same since. It's one of those things it's hard to give a rest because you use it every play."

OLB Julius Peppers +4.2, 25th/55 3-4OLBs - The Metusalem of the D picks his spots vs the run, but can still rush to justify his high salary. Snapcount could be dropped further from 805/1214. Graded 13th pass rushing, finishing 16th in PRP with 12 sacks and 64 total pressures. Graded 4th worst vs the run, though. Just 38th in run stop percentage and missed 5 tackles. Allowed 5/5 receptions when targeted in coverage. A sack is worth roughly 1M in this league, and he still produces those.

OLB Nick Perry +3.9, 26th/55 3-4OLBs - Like Datone, Perry has brewed slowly, but has improved a bit every year. Had his best season in a contract year, despite some injury issues. Graded 28th pass rushing, with 39th PRP. Did have 8 sacks but just 20 total pressures. His true value was being by far our best run defending OLB. Graded 18th, and had the 12th highest run stop % with 19 solo stops. Did miss 6 tackles. Didn't drop to coverage much, allowing catches on both targets. May have not hit his ceiling yet. If we can have the Perry of the playoffs back, I'm all for it!

OLB Mike Neal
-14.7, 54th/55 3-4OLBs - PFF seems to REALLY hate Neal... Despite career best numbers and highest snapcount (845), he had his worst graded season. Let's see if we can find some sense why: Neal had THE worst pass rush grade, despite having 9 sacks and 40 total pressures. Problem was, it took him 478 rushes to produce that, putting him 43rd/52 in pass rush productivity %. My guess is, the graders credited others for providing him with easy sacks, and penalized him for getting taken out completely 1-1. He was 22nd vs the run, with 20th run stop %. Missed way too many tackles (11). Allowed 5/7 targeted receptions. That his grade was THIS low still baffles me. Has value being able to move between OLB and DE.

ILB Clay Matthews III -1.5, 22nd/63 ILBs - By far his worst graded season, but still in top third of ILBs. Main problem was struggles vs the run, where he was hit or miss. Graded 27th vs the run, but just 53rd/60 in run stop %. Missed horrible 17 tackles, ten more than ever before. Did have 23 solo stops. Graded 22nd pass rushing, producing 9 sacks and 60 total pressures. That's by far most of all ILBs, but since a lot of that came from OLB spot, his PRP % as ILB shows only 30th best. Forget about that - the dude is still a beast rushing! Allowed 29/40 targeted passes, still finishing 15th in cover snaps/reception. MM wants him back to mainly rushing the passer, and it makes total sense.

ILB Joe Thomas Jr. -2.6, 25th/63 ILBs - Was poached by Cowboys and then poached back to serve as coverage ILB. Filled that role admirably. Is simply too light to hold up against the run or to rush the passer, grading 21st and 42nd respectively, but GB smartly avoided him being on the field on run downs. Missed 8 tackles, mostly in coverage, where he graded 18th. Key stat is cover snaps/reception, where he was incredibly 2nd best among ILBs. Allowed 13/21 targets. I'd sure keep him in case we don't find an every-down ILB.

ILB Jake Ryan -7.2, 35th/63 ILBs - Not bad at all in 335 snaps for a 4th round rookie, but there's a ton of room for improvement. Even if he needs more strength, was already 19th highest graded vs the run. His run stop % was 7th highest with 19 solo stops and just 2 missed tackles. Did nothing rushing the passer, grading 50th with just 1 hurry. Coverage is what he needs to work on most, grading 46th and allowing 15/18 targets. Could be the solution as the more run D -oriented ILB with a lot of seasoning needed in other aspects of the game.

ILB Nate Palmer
-20.1, 56/63 ILBs - Moved inside and showed he can't hack it. Sucked in all aspects in his 544 snaps. Graded 48th vs the run, and 42nd in run stop % (16 solo stops, 4 missed tackles). 4th worst grade rushing the passer with just a sack and a QB hit - THE worst PRP %. Graded 49th and allowed 25/34 in coverage. May get another chance due to being dirt cheap.

Significant others (in order of snaps):

OLB Jayrone Elliott -1.2 - Relegated mostly on STs, but still managed 3 sacks and 10 total pressures. That's a pretty good average/rush! Negative grade is mostly due to penalties and for missing 4 tackles in his 177 snaps. Could steal more of Pep's snaps going forward, but dunno if he's shown enough to start.

OLB Andy Mulumba -1.2 - The forgotten man in a deep OLB corps. Just 46 snaps from scrimmage and just 1 hurry. Mostly inactive, and likely gone as a UFA. May get a min contract to compete in camp.

Boyd
and Barrington played so little before injuries hit, that they get incompletes. Bruce Gaston was stolen from our PS, and proceeded to produce a sack and 11 hurries in 168 snaps for da Bears. Hated to see him go.
 
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A top tier ILB in the first 3 rounds is a must for me. Get him in Matthews spot and let Clay go back outside. PFF isn't hating Neal he is one of the most overrated players in my opinion GB. Would prefer to cut bait and get a younger more aggressive OLB to use as a situational rusher. Great post ! Thank you for doing this ! thumbsup
 
A top tier ILB in the first 3 rounds is a must for me. Get him in Matthews spot and let Clay go back outside. PFF isn't hating Neal he is one of the most overrated players in my opinion GB. Would prefer to cut bait and get a younger more aggressive OLB to use as a situational rusher. Great post ! Thank you for doing this ! thumbsup
No prob! Thanks for reading these long-#¤% posts! I do these mainly to learn, myself, and typing it out helps. No reason not to share.

ILB is mos def a need. Barrington and Ryan will slug it out for the run stuffer -role. Thomas is really a S playing ILB, so this year's 257 snaps was already too much. His coverage was surely on another planet versus our other current talent.

My guess is Datone was worked in as OLB, since we already had a bunch of guys who can rush inside. He could very well take parts of Perry's and Neal's role if he loses a couple of pounds and learns more OLB technique.

Elliott has always flashed as that young aggressive outside rusher. Between Clay, Pep, Datone and Elliott, that's not a bad group. But drafting a OLB early is a real possibility due to perhaps losing two OLBs and Pep getting waaay up there in age.
 
Need on defense is ILB
That will free up Clay and allow Capers to be able to be more creative.
DL second.
Can't have too many big boys up front.
OLB 3rd.
We should keep Neal or Perry so we will still have decent depth but we do need to replace Peppers eventually
 
first of all - great post, s80.
i agree with everyone that inside linebacker is our biggest need on defense. we need to move clay back outside.
 
Something to explain Raji's late season struggles:

He suffered a groin injury in week 5, which never fully healed. JS quote Dec 25th: "I started off pretty hot," Raji said this week. "I would say I haven't been able to move the same since. It's one of those things it's hard to give a rest because you use it every play."
 
Something to explain Raji's late season struggles:

He suffered a groin injury in week 5, which never fully healed. JS quote Dec 25th: "I started off pretty hot," Raji said this week. "I would say I haven't been able to move the same since. It's one of those things it's hard to give a rest because you use it every play."

He isn't getting younger. Could see TT move on from him and Guion and bring in a younger NT. Agree with others about ILB.
 
Thanks for taking the time to write up your articles and share them with us. I've really enjoyed reading them, and some of the results have been pretty surprising/eye-opening!
 
I would resign Raji if he would take a short 2-3 year deal for around 2 or 3 million a year.
 
Thanks for taking the time to write up your articles and share them with us. I've really enjoyed reading them, and some of the results have been pretty surprising/eye-opening!
People on this forum seem to really read these long articles. As a writer, nothing is more rewarding than people taking the time, and even more if it inspires thoughts.

One point that's important: Do not read PFF grades as The Truth. They're a starting point to look deeper. PFF grades and sig stats are totally out of context - For example, 3-4DEs can have at least a selfless blocker-eating role (Guion), penetrating disruptor role (Daniels) and some play almost only on passing snaps (Datone). Yet PFF lumps them all into one big list as if they were fully comparable. I've tried to write it open, but couldn't make it any longer, and am not knowledgeable enough to assess those roles 100% accurately, much less compare those league-wide.

So, what has been surprising/eye-opening for you, HeartyHops? There may be more to it than excelling or sucking...


I would resign Raji if he would take a short 2-3 year deal for around 2 or 3 million a year.
That would be a real bargain, and likely unrealistic. Sounds more like something Guion would get.

Much smarter than me AlexGreen#20 of FF said that 3/13.5 would be a fair number, and 3/16.5 the max he'd spend. The latter, for me, would have to be with close to zero guarantees, because of Raji's injury history and previous motivation issues.
 
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