Players that will be gone by pick #27

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DenverPackFan

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Unless something shocking happens, I think there is virtually no chance that following players will be available by our pick:
QB - Wentz, Goff
WR - Treadwell
OL - Tunsil, Stanley
DB - Ramsey
LB - Jack
DL - Bosa

That's only 8 players. Usually there would be a few more, I would guess.

I think that there is less than a 50% chance that these guys last until our pick:
Shaq Lawson, Buckner, Elliot, Lynch, Ragland, Spence

That's another 6 players.
That leaves another 13 to go before our pick if we don't trade.

Kind of a weird year because there are so many good defensive lineman and second tier offensive linemen that it just depends on what a team is looking for that could push another guy down. For example, A'Shawn Robinson would seem to be very likely to be gone by our pick under normal circumstances, but I could see where teams might take his teammate, Reed, or a guy like Rankins, Butler, Billings or Clark before him. So some of those guys should be gone by our pick, but probably not all of them - so the question is which ones?

Same for OL. After the first two you have Conklin, Coleman, Decker and Spriggs. I would think that one or two of those guys will get picked ahead of us but probably not all of them.

Of course, every year there are a couple of guys that are the wild cards due to injury or character concerns. This year Jaylon Smith would certainly fall into that category and so would Nkemdiche.

Anyone that you think should be in one of those top two groups and why?
 
You just never know when some knucklehead GM is going to take a QB way too early. I mean, there's no reason any QBs before the ones you have listed should go before we pick, but you just can't tell how much higher someone will value Cook or Hackenberg.

I would include that OT from A&M in a group of players that there is a 50/50 chance of being available at our pick.
 
Good post!
I don't see Elliot gone for sure either.

This just means we have a shot at a real good talent.... Hopefully a future blue chip
 
Depends on the overall depth of the group. That's why I would put Ragland in the "certain to be gone" category. He seems to be ahead of the ILB pack by quite a bit, so a team that really wants an ILB might take him if they can, because you're not getting comparable talent next round.
 
Post combine, there are probably some changes here.

My guess...

<10% chance of being available:
6 - Wentz, Goff, Tunsil, Stanley, Ramsey, Bosa

<33% chance of being available:
5 - Jack, Buckner, Elliott, Hargreaves, Rankins

<50% chance of being available:
5 - Treadwell, Lawson, Lee, Lynch, Ogbah

If those 16 guys are gone then 10 of these guys will probably be gone:
Robinson, Reed, Billings, Butler, Clark, Nkemdiche, Dodd, Conklin, Decker, Spriggs, Corey Coleman, Doctson, Apple, Alexander, Jackson III, Ragland and Spence.

I think the 3 most likely wild cards to go in the first 26 picks are Jaylon Smith, Hackenberg and Derrick Henry but more likely that none of them do at this point.

My wild-ass guess is that someone will take a chance on Nkemdiche and at least 2 of the DL and at least one of the OT's will get picked before us. That leaves 4 of the DL, 2 of the OT, 3 CB and Ragland and Spence that should be in the mix for our pick.
 
Smith knee is really bad. He won't go first round. He will be lucky if he doesn't end up as a day 3 pick. Heard at least 3 teams have taken him off draft board.
 
GBP4EVER said:
Smith knee is really bad. He won't go first round. He will be lucky if he doesn't end up as a day 3 pick. Heard at least 3 teams have taken him off draft board.
Click to expand...

I agree. But all it takes is one GM so that's why I listed him as a wild card chance.
 
Although I find the draft rather boring at times, the fun part for me is the ones that are taken unexpectedly and the shock and awe that follows. pop(

We all know what we perceive as need, but does TT see it that way?

Several people are thinking that TT may go with Billings. Several others think he goes with someone unexpected. Man, what I wouldn't give to see how they goes through the process and decide who the players are that they want.
 
Nice update DPF! Hackenberg was so scatter armed at the combine (and, ya know, real life too) can't imagine someone taking him in the first. Smith's knee is bad, think he's out of round 1 too. Also just read that Spence didn't come off well in interviews recently and didn't really improve his measurables at his pro day, so he looks more like a early-mid day 2 guy rather than day 1.
 
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