2019 NCAA 16 Team Football Tournament Seedings

Crease Creature

Crease Creature

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Merry Christmas everyone!

Here it is, that last present that fell behind the tree that nobody found until the next day, the seeding and bracketing of our 16 team tournament!

A lot of time and effort went into this one, and as far as I can recall there hasn't been a tighter field than there was this year. Six pages of handwritten notes (and a water ring from my glass of Christmas cheer) litter my desk as a result of some really fantastic college football this season, and this has been the toughest field to determine since I started doing this. Before the seeding, here are some cool things I found that I want to share with you:

Hawaii, with their bowl game, played 15 games this season

The AAC was pretty good this year, but each of the three teams I evaluated outside of Memphis played a tougher schedule, and the number say they did better.

The SEC was bad, but I think we all knew that already

Some more stuff will shake itself out in the analysis, but let's get things started!

The 10 conference champions are seeded first, the top 8 host a game at their campus. The criteria for seeding the champs was:

-Conference Record
---Undefeated champs go first
-----remaining conference winners seeded by below criteria

further seeding criteria was (not in any order)
-overall record

-strength of schedule
---Opponent Total Ranking (OTR)
-----OTR is figured by adding together the final Massey composite ranking of all opponents
on a team's schedule. FCS teams are counted as their FCS rank +130
+scored golf style, lower the better

-Rank of average win
---Figured by dividing the OTR for all victories by # of victories
+again, the lower the better

-Best win
+eye test of highest ranked victory

-avg loss
+the average ranking of all opponents not defeated

-worst loss
+rank of lowest unbeaten opponent

-Win Multiplier (winX ("winks"))
+Total victories of all beaten opponents (a change from last year)
++WM wasn't always done when the seeding was more apparent

  • Ohio State (B1G Conference)
    • #1 Seed
      • undefeated in conference and regular season play (9-0, 13-0)
      • SoS--OTR: 617
      • Avg Win: 47 (best in field)
      • best win: #6 Wisconsin (2x)
      • winX: 94 (best in field)
      • additional tidbit: has victories over MAC and Conf. USA champs
  • Louisiana State (Southeastern Conference)
    • #2 Seed
      • undefeated in conference and regular season play (8-0, 13-0)
      • SoS--OTR: 766
      • Avg Win: 58
      • best win: #5 Georgia
      • winX: 86
  • Clemson (Atlantic Coast Conference)
    • #3 Seed
      • undefeated in conference and regular season play (8-0, 13-0)
      • SoS--OTR: 916
      • Avg Win: 70
      • best win: #32 Texas A&M
      • winX: 83
  • Boise State (Mountain West Conference)
    • #4 Seed
      • undefeated in conference play (8-0, 12-1)
      • no other analysis performed, only undefeated conference champ left
  • Oregon (Pac-12 Conference)
    • #5 Seed
      • 8-1 in conference, 11-2 overall
      • SoS--OTR: 743
      • Avg Win: 64
      • best win: #12 Utah
      • 1 +100 team (FCS #3 Montana)
      • avg loss: 17
      • worst loss: #22 USC
      • other loss: #13 Auburn
      • winX: 73
  • Oklahoma (Big XII Conference)
    • #6 seed
      • 8-1 in conference, 12-1 overall
      • SoS--OTR: 774
      • Avg Win: 62
      • best win: #16 Baylor (2x)
      • 2 +100 teams (Kansas, FCS #39 SoDak)
      • loss: #28 KSU
      • winX: 70
  • Memphis (American Athletic Conference)
    • #7 seed
      • 7-1 in conference, 12-1 overall
      • SoS--OTR: 923
      • Avg Win: 73
      • best win: #21 Navy
      • 2 +100 teams (So. AL, FCS #51 Southern)
      • loss: #44 Temple
      • winX: 76
  • Appalachian State (Sun Belt Conference)
    • #8 seed
      • 7-1 in conference, 12-1 overall
      • SoS--OTR: 1,192
      • Avg Win: 94
      • best win: #34 Louisiana (2x)
      • 5+100 teams (Troy, TxSt, So. AL, Coastal Car., FCS #91 ETSU)
      • loss: #63 Georgia Southern
      • winX: 67
  • Florida Atlantic (Conference USA)
    • #9 seed
      • 7-1 in conference, 10-3 overall
      • SoS--OTR: 1,191
      • Avg Win: 110
      • best win: #59 Western Kentucky
      • 4 +100 teams (UTSA, ODU, MTSU, FCS #117 Wagner (worst in field))
      • avg loss: 28
      • worst loss: #60 Marshall
      • signature win: only losing to Ohio State by 24 (other loss was #24 UCF)
      • winX: 52
  • Miami of Ohio (Mid-America Conference)
    • the clear #10 seed (6-2 in conference, 8-5 overall)
At-large bids: the six next best teams
  • Wisconsin (at-large from B1G Conference)
    • #11 seed
      • 7-2 in conference, 10-3 overall
      • SoS--OTR: 669
      • Avg Win: 60 (best of at-large bids)
      • best win: #14 Michigan
      • avg loss: 23
      • worst loss: #67 Illinois
      • winX: 64
  • Georgia (at-large from SEC)
    • #12 seed
      • 7-1 in conference, 11-2 overall
      • SoS--OTR: 780
      • avg win: 64
      • best win: #9 Florida
      • 3 +100 teams (GT, FCS #81 Murray State, Vandy)
      • avg loss: 34
      • worst loss: #66 South Carolina
      • winX: 73
  • Notre Dame (at-large FBS Independent)
    • #13 seed
      • 10-2 record
      • SoS-OTR: 641 (best of at-large bids)
      • Avg Win: 62
      • best win: #22 USC
      • 2 +100 teams (Bowl. Grn., New Mex)
      • avg loss: 9 (best of at-large bids)
      • worst loss: #14 Michigan
      • winX: 64
  • Penn State (at-large from B1G Conference)
    • #14 seed
      • 7-2 in conference, 10-2 overall
      • SoS--OTR: 730
      • Avg Win: 71
      • best win: #14 Michigan
      • 3 +100 teams (Rutgers, MD, FCS #43 Idaho)
      • avg loss: 10
      • worst loss: #20 Minnesota
      • winX: 60
  • Utah (at-large from Pac-12 Conference)
    • #15 seed
      • 8-1 in conference, 11-2 overall
      • SoS--OTR: 852
      • Avg Win: 75
      • best win: #31 Washington
      • 2 +100 teams (NIU, FCS #66 IDST)
      • avg loss: 14
      • worst loss: #22 USC
      • winX: 60
  • and finally, Cincinnati (at-large from AAC)
    • #16 seed
      • 7-1 in conference, 10-3 overall
      • SOS--OTR: 809
      • Avg Win: 78
      • best win: #24 UCF
      • 2 +100 teams (UConn, E. Carolina)
      • avg loss: 10
      • worst loss: #15 Memphis (2x)
      • other loss: #1 Ohio State
      • winX: 55
Just missed: Florida
  • 6-2 in conference, 10-2 overall, 753 OTR, Avg Win 75, beat Auburn, but rest of schedule is bad. Best argument to displace the Bearcats as the 16-seed, but just not quite, not gonna punish Cinci for playing the conference champ twice, and the #1.
Also considered: Auburn 561 OTR (one of the best I've ever seen), but 3 losses, and records matter a little. WinX was only 44. Looked at Air Force, Navy, SMU, Minnesota, and Alabama (basically all the 2-loss teams save Baylor, who is ineligible for my postseason). If Navy manages to make their conference title game ever, they'd get in this thing. SMU was also very close, between Florida and Auburn.

A few notes on Alabama: finished the season with a #10 composite ranking, lots of polls still have them as a top five, a few have them between 20-25, and I side with these later ones. Alabama's OTR was 892, the lowest of the Power 5 teams I did, and worse than SMU's, their best win was #32 Texas A&M (still overrated), and their winX, with 10 opponents to total up, was only 47. This is the first time I've really questioned a team's composite ranking.

The bracket will be in another post because this one is long enough, but thanks for tuning in this season!
 
Great post and analysis but....if I’m doing a 16 team playoff I want the 16 best teams in the field and that puts Alabama, Auburn and Baylor in. Especially Baylor. The Alabama thing is tricky. Tua is out but i still think it’s a top 16 team. I just don’t put a lot of weight in winning a Group of 6 conference so that changes my top 16

To me the best model is either 6 or 8 team field. 6 teams would be Power 5 plus 1 at large, top 2 get bye week. 8 is easier Power 5 champs 3 at large. Sorry Group of 6, schedule P5 schools and win
 
Packinatl said:
Great post and analysis but....if I’m doing a 16 team playoff I want the 16 best teams in the field and that puts Alabama, Auburn and Baylor in. Especially Baylor. The Alabama thing is tricky. Tua is out but i still think it’s a top 16 team. I just don’t put a lot of weight in winning a Group of 6 conference so that changes my top 16

To me the best model is either 6 or 8 team field. 6 teams would be Power 5 plus 1 at large, top 2 get bye week. 8 is easier Power 5 champs 3 at large. Sorry Group of 6, schedule P5 schools and win
Click to expand...
Agree we have seen a mid-major is never going to get considered for a playoff spot. Look at UCF undefeated and highest the got in AP was 6th.
 
Well, the one thing my analysis showed is that Alabama isn't a top 16 team, they haven't actually done anything this season to prove that they'd belong. They could make it if I just did the pure top 16, and heck, maybe for fun I'll do the work for Michigan and seed the top 16 teams from the massey ratings (or look at the actual CFP rankings and do those)

Also, I could run the numbers on Baylor (I didn't) as it's a personal reason they're out, but I don't see how Auburn could get in and Florida could not.
 
Florida lost to Michigan, Auburn played Georgia and LSU even, call if the eye test. I get the Alabama schedule but with Tua they dominated, again more eye test. Full disclaimer I don’t think the Bama defense was close to want it was the past 2-3 years. Baylor played Oklahoma even with a 3rd team QB playing significant time
 
Packinatl said:
My bad good catch. I just don't think FLA was all that special, escaped vs Miami and was trailing in the 4th vs Kentucky came back vs South Carolina.
Click to expand...

A little bit of why they didn't make it over Cinci. The raw numbers for Auburn were really impressive, but if I couldn't get a team that beat them head to head and finished with a better record into the field (FL), then I didn't think Auburn could get a spot either.

I try to use the raw numbers so that the bias from a single poll, especially ones that start with preseason rankings, don't affect things too much, but I can't shake the feeling that there's some of that in play with Alabama which has trickeled over into Auburn and by extension Florida.

Bama's numbers suggest a team that should be in the upper-30s as far as rank, not 10th. They beat the snot out of awful teams, their OTR was worse than any other power 5 team I did and a few group of 5 teams also played tougher schedules. I know that they're good, they just didn't actually show us how good this year.
 
Bama would beat the snot out of any Group of 6 team, it would be a mismatch. Same with Auburn. I get the SEC was not as deep as in the past. The Tua being out thing does even it out a bit but not enough.
 
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