Aaron Rodgers new contract

Budman said:
I figured it was money but why did MLB and the NBA go to guaranteed contracts? Is it working for them? If so, why?
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Their unions are stronger. MLB has gone on strike for this, NBA is driven by single players so teams have to roll over or there'd be no sport. NFL is different - more players, larger rosters, much shorter playing lifespan per player, increased injury risk. There's always a trade off in a sport where injuries happen so often and careers are short - you can get guaranteed deals but the deals are going to be much shorter.

The question for the future is, are players willing to miss a season to get this? What else are they willing to give up to get it? Prospects for the next CBA do not look good.
 
It's ALL conjecture until a contract is signed. You all know how NFL high profile negotiations work... two parties approach the table with opposing goals in a volatile profession resulting in weeks of unrealistic offers and demands from both sides until they eventually settle somewhere in the middle where both hopefully feel they have successfully limited their risk exposure. (Whew!)

TW, your argument appears valid. Given football’s inherent violence, the physical toll it inflicts on its players, and their shrinking career spans (currently 3 years-ish), it appears NFL players are the professional athletes most in need of guaranteed contracts.

Yet it's that exact same reasoning why owners are resistant to giving guaranteed contracts... and I can’t blame them if they want their team to remain competitive. They have to deal with A SALARY CAP, players are one play away from major injury, teams have much larger rosters to pay than other pro sports, there already is a large disparity between the veterans and young players, the NFL offers every benefit that is provided by all other pro leagues plus several more - severance pay, long term care insurance, the Former Player Life Improvement Plan, and cognitive disability benefits. The only result I see of mandatory guaranteed contracts is shorter contracts because of risk of loss of competitiveness and loss of benefits.

In reality, contracts are really just word salads and depending how written (e.g. injury guarantees, opt-outs, % of cap) a totally guaranteed contract may be less desirable than one with bonuses and 50% non-guaranteed depending on either sides aversion to risk. (Complicated, right?) What's interesting to me is when Flacco signed his contract of $20M/yr after Rodgers of $22M/yr and that resulted in a market of not much pay disparity between an average QB and an elite one. The recent contracts have widened that gap.

If re-negotiated this year Rodgers' salary structure will be modeled after the recent ones: around five years $157.5 mil total ($31.5 mil/yr), $96 mil fully guaranteed, with $100 mil 3rd year cash, $55 mil 1st year cash. An opt-out makes no sense for the Packers, and salary based on % of cap is too risky for Rodgers in case of another rollback.
 
rpiotr01 said:
Their unions are stronger. MLB has gone on strike for this, NBA is driven by single players so teams have to roll over or there'd be no sport. NFL is different - more players, larger rosters, much shorter playing lifespan per player, increased injury risk. There's always a trade off in a sport where injuries happen so often and careers are short - you can get guaranteed deals but the deals are going to be much shorter.

The question for the future is, are players willing to miss a season to get this? What else are they willing to give up to get it? Prospects for the next CBA do not look good.
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Thanks rp! Great answer. As I've said before, I don't really know anything about the ins and outs of contracts, cba etc., when it comes to sports.

One thing I thought about though is if they were to go to guaranteed contracts, couldn't they, the owners, look to lower the exorbanant salary and years accordingly?
 
oakleaf said:
An opt-out makes no sense for the Packers, and salary based on % of cap is too risky for Rodgers in case of another rollback.
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Good post oak. Don't mean to nitpick but I think there is little to no risk of a cap rollback in the time frame that's relevant to Rodgers. The next CBA will change a lot of things and is highly likely to cause missed games, so everything after that is largely irrelevant.
 
Budman said:
I figured it was money but why did MLB and the NBA go to guaranteed contracts? Is it working for them? If so, why?

Also, I would figure shelf life has to have something to do with it. I'm not sure how long the average MLB or NBA player last but, physically, I'd have to think the NFL player shelf life is shorter. If it is shorter.
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One part how strong the MLB and NBA unions are compared to NFL. Also MLB and NBA have much smaller rosters so you won't have to guarantee as much money as you would compared to a NFL roster.
 
oakleaf said:
It's ALL conjecture until a contract is signed. You all know how NFL high profile negotiations work... two parties approach the table with opposing goals in a volatile profession resulting in weeks of unrealistic offers and demands from both sides until they eventually settle somewhere in the middle where both hopefully feel they have successfully limited their risk exposure. (Whew!)

TW, your argument appears valid. Given football’s inherent violence, the physical toll it inflicts on its players, and their shrinking career spans (currently 3 years-ish), it appears NFL players are the professional athletes most in need of guaranteed contracts.

Yet it's that exact same reasoning why owners are resistant to giving guaranteed contracts... and I can’t blame them if they want their team to remain competitive. They have to deal with A SALARY CAP, players are one play away from major injury, teams have much larger rosters to pay than other pro sports, there already is a large disparity between the veterans and young players, the NFL offers every benefit that is provided by all other pro leagues plus several more - severance pay, long term care insurance, the Former Player Life Improvement Plan, and cognitive disability benefits. The only result I see of mandatory guaranteed contracts is shorter contracts because of risk of loss of competitiveness and loss of benefits.

In reality, contracts are really just word salads and depending how written (e.g. injury guarantees, opt-outs, % of cap) a totally guaranteed contract may be less desirable than one with bonuses and 50% non-guaranteed depending on either sides aversion to risk. (Complicated, right?) What's interesting to me is when Flacco signed his contract of $20M/yr after Rodgers of $22M/yr and that resulted in a market of not much pay disparity between an average QB and an elite one. The recent contracts have widened that gap.

If re-negotiated this year Rodgers' salary structure will be modeled after the recent ones: around five years $157.5 mil total ($31.5 mil/yr), $96 mil fully guaranteed, with $100 mil 3rd year cash, $55 mil 1st year cash. An opt-out makes no sense for the Packers, and salary based on % of cap is too risky for Rodgers in case of another rollback.
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Wow. Great stuff oak! Sounds like the next CBA negotiations could get very interesting.
 
Next CBA is going to be nasty as can be. I expect a long lockout. Players feel NFLPA got screwed in last CBA and this time are coming to play hardball. NFLPA has been telling players for couple years save money expect a lockout to happen and last year NFL asked NFLPA to sit down to start discussing a new CBA early and NFLPA declined.
 
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GBP4EVER said:
One part how strong the MLB and NBA unions are compared to NFL. Also MLB and NBA have much smaller rosters so you won't have to guarantee as much money as you would compared to a NFL roster.
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They also play longer seasons, which could account for more advertising revenue (especially baseball) that allows them to do what they do with contracts.
NBA, unlike MLB, has a salary cap. But it is a "soft cap" and is recalculated each year as a % of the previous years league revenue, so it can fluctuate and it allows teams to exceed the cap limits in order to keep high profile players that they want to keep. It's a real different cat than what the NFL has.
 
Budman said:
New revelation. Looks like it was all conjecture. Crisis averted. Gnashing of teeth no more.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...rts-about-contract-talks-are-just-conjecture/
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There is no denial of any reported fact in his statement.

I don’t talk about it to the media and I don’t think my agent is, either,” Rodgers said after Monday’s organized team activity. “A lot of it is just conjecture and stories that aren’t really based in factual interactions or (are) misrepresented (inter)actions. I think that’s just part of it.
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He could want the out clause for reasons that extend beyond player versus team control OR are not directly related to compensation compared to other players. None of the reported scenarios have been denied here. He is not even denying his agent is talking to the media.
 
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