Badgers Continue Tough Big Ten Schedule with Visit from Nebraska

[Da-news-now]

By now it seems redundant to say the Wisconsin Badgers face another huge test in Big Ten play, after all it has been that way for the past four games.


However, this game really is the biggest test for the Badgers on its 2016 Big Ten slate. It simply comes down to this — win and back in the West division race, take the loss and gone are any hopes for a B1G title game appearance.

With the 7-0 Nebraska Cornhuskers coming to Camp Randall for a second night game at the venerable stadium, Wisconsin has to win and still hope for the Huskers to lose another game to take control of the West division in the final month of the season.

No one knows the vital importance of this game better than the two teams who have had some classic matchups in their brief Big Ten history together. Will Saturday night be another crazy chapter in the Freedom Trophy battle?

Let’s take a look at how these two teams stack up ahead of Saturday’s game.

Nebraska Team Stats:


(stat – Big Ten rank – national rank)

Offense


Scoring: 34.1 ppg — 3rd — 39th
Passing: 236.0 ypg — 4th — 59th
Rushing: 211.4 ypg — 5th — 35th
Total: 447.4 ypg — 3rd — 41st

Defense


Scoring: 17.7 ppg — 4th — 14th
Passing: 218.4 ypg — 10th — 53rd
Rushing: 124.4 ypg — 4th — 28th
Total: 342.9 ypg — 4th — 22nd

Wisconsin Team Stats:

Offense


Scoring: 24.3 ppg — 10th — t-96th
Passing: 209.0 ypg — 9th — 90th
Rushing: 173.0 ypg — 7th — 64th
Total: 382.0 ypg — 9th — 90th

Defense


Scoring: 14.3 ppg — 2nd — 4th
Passing: 197.7 ypg — 7th — 29th
Rushing: 102.9 ypg — 2nd — 9th
Total: 300.6 ypg — 3rd — 9th

Stats to Remember:


— 5: This is the fifth opponent Wisconsin has faced that was ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll when UW played them. It may not seem significant because every game is different, but experience against alleged top teams in the country does help and there’s no doubt that UW has a massive advantage in terms of playing on the big stage and under the bright lights of the national college football conscious. Nebraska? They haven’t played a single ranked opponent since hosting Oregon (who has gone on to drop every game since that loss), and this is going to be a massive step up in national competition for them. Can the Badgers use the big game experience gained to their advantage?

— 13. That is the number of points Nebraska has allowed to opponents in the fourth quarter all season long. Couple that news with the fact that the Huskers have put up 98 points in that quarter alone and you can see why this team comes in to the game 7-0. However, the Huskers have done most of their scoring against some really bad opponents, and have scored no more than 21 points against any Big Ten opponent (Illinois) in the final quarter of games. Wisconsin has dominated the middle two quarters of games, outscoring opponents 101 to 60 in the second and third quarters. Which one of these performances be the one that prevails?

3 Keys to Badgers Victory:

BLOOMINGTON, IN – OCTOBER 15: Tommy Armstrong Jr #4 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers runs with the ball during the game aganst the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium on October 15, 2016 in Bloomington, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Turn Tommy Armstrong Over: Nebraska simply goes as Tommy Armstrong goes this season, despite what an improved Terrell Newby-led running game might say entering this game. However, Armstrong has been prone to making some really bad throws that opponents just haven’t converted in to turnovers.

Nebraska has turned the ball over just nine times so far this season, a huge help towards is 7-0 start. But, there have been plenty of chances for interceptions from Armstrong and the Huskers have put the ball on the ground 11 times while being lucky enough to recover seven of them.

The good news is Wisconsin has been adept at bottling up Armstrong in his career, holding him to 17-of-46 passing (37.0%) and allowing him to rush for less than 50 yards per game on average as well.

Get Passing Game Going Early: The easy thing would be to say the Badgers need to start off grounding and pounding, and the ground game is certainly going to be important. But, getting Alex Hornibrook and the passing game to be respected early on in this game is going to be vital.

Nebraska’s secondary is no joke with the likes of safety Nate Gerry and cornerbacks Chris Jones and Joshua Kalu in the mix. If you can get them to have to back off and start hitting the likes of Fumagalli and Peavy with some chunk-yardage in the passing game early on it opens this offense up in a major way.

Win the Field Position Battle: There are two parts to this scenario for the Badgers, and one of them involves using that stifling defense to keep the Huskers from advancing out of their own territory all that often (opponents have been in UW’s red zone just 19 times all season long). The other is to finally find some sort of consistency in the punting game.

Freshman Anthony Lotti is listed as the starter and has been the better of the directional kickers. Now would be a great time for the lightbulb to go off and for Lotti to also become a consistent boomer in the punting game as well. His ability to absolutely stick opponents inside their own 10-yard line is an asset, but one that UW would rather not have to use thanks to stalled out drives. How about doing it with some 45 to 50-yard punts for a change?

Staff Predictions:


Andy: Wisconsin 21-10

Over half a season of results have told me a few things about this Badgers team, and one of them is that high powered offenses have a rough time figuring out this defense. Nebraska’s offense is pretty good against bad competition, but the Huskers haven’t faced a defense like the Badgers can throw at you. Look for Wisconsin’s offense to be good enough to get in the end zone at least twice. With its defense that could be enough alone, but I’m smelling a defensive touchdown in what has been a crazy-ass series since the Badgers rudely introduced the Huskers to the Big Ten in 2011.

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[TW]

The schedule doesn't get easier. After Nebraska, the Badgers travel to Evanston to play Northwestern. If they win both these games, they could be the western division champions, and play in the Big 10 Championship game. If they lose, they drop well down in the standings. Two losses is all you can stand, and be at the top.

This has been one tough Big 10 schedule for the Badgers, and if they make it into the championship game, they might be a better team than the one that lost to Michigan and OSU.

 

[Crease Creature]

I've seen places where the line on this game has moved up to 9-9.5

 

[Pugger]

I've seen places where the line on this game has moved up to 9-9.5

In whose favor?

 

[Budman]

This team is the real deal.

 

[Pugger]

The D played great. I can only imagine what the D would be if we didn't have those 2 kids hurt in the middle.

 

[Crease Creature]

In whose favor?

The Badgers were -8 through most of the week, then Saturday morning I saw one place that had them at -9.5

 

[FlaPack]

Northwestern is more like OSU Offensively than Nebraska. They like to spread it out and Thorson is very mobile. And we never seem to show up in Evanston.

Sheldon had his best game of the year. To me the unsung player on defense is James. He finally has a position, was recruited as a DE, move to LB did not work out. The kid flat out plays

 

[57packer]

Nebraska never really seemed comfortable on Saturday and probably should have lost in regulation by 7-10 points, but the kicking game has been poor and the offense is just really hard to watch.

The OL is not run blocking or pass blocking well right now and much of the problem seems to be on the right side of the line. "Bensch" has not had a good season and Edwards, who played RT on Saturday is a converted TE, who only converted in the past few months. They need to find some answers on the right side for next year.

The running game is a bunch of 3 yards or less gains that are not moving the chains and only occasionally are they getting the long gain. The Badger offense of years past could actually move the chains with nothing more than a running game - not this year. I remember when 3rd and 3 was regularly a running play with base personnel. 3rd and 3 is now almost exclusively a passing down it seems with an extra TE or WR in the game.

Which brings us to the next problem. The passing game. Teams are running tight man schemes with a single safety up top and another cheating near to or into the box and ready to help cover the TE should he run a pattern. Clement isn't much of a receiver, so he is essentially ignored as a receiver when he's in there. The safety who covers the TE is also available as the 8th guy in the box should the TE stay in to block. Hornibrook, Houston and Chryst simply don't have an offense to combat what they are seeing. The WRs are just OK and don't outrun many people. The OL is not allowing a lot of time to throw even if the WRs are open deep.

Neither QB, but especially Hornibrook are mobile enough to make defenses pay for blitzing and playing man coverage because they can't run. Hornibrook also really needs to stop throwing those floaters out there. He gives dBs way too much time to adjust and come back to the ball. It's even worse when the throw is off target - it just gets picked.

Houston just needs to stop throwing out routes, especially late in the play. I think every single one of his INTs this year was on a poorly considered throw on a short "out". As in previous games, that throw has to be early and in rhythm or you don't make it. Sat he again threw an INT on an out late. The dB at that point is mostly in position and just jumps in front or as on Saturday, one of the two dBs covering at the time. As a senior I'd have thought he would avoid double coverage, but that's perhaps why he's never been the full-time starter for a season.

There is almost nothing bad to say about the defense. Yes, they make mistakes at times and miss some tackles, but every defense does. They play hard and intense football for the full 4 quarters which is pretty good considering they are missing 4-5 guys from their preferred top-15 almost every week. I don't know if it's the Jim Leonhard effect, or what it is, but the dBs are doing a much better job of finding the ball and battling with the WR at the moment the ball arrives. I would not be surprised if he moves up the coaching ladder in the coming years, either at UW or elsewhere.