Brewers GM David Stearns dealing with his eye on the future

[Da-news-now]

When informed that he is referred to as “Dealin’ Dave” in some media circles, David Stearns couldn’t help but laugh. “We have made a lot of moves,” said the Brewers general manager. To be exact: nine trades, netting 16 players.

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[57packer]

His approach has certainly been aggressive, and he's compiling some highly rated talent in the farm system. We'll see if that translates to future MLB success.

Either way, 2016 and 2017 are going to be challenging seasons to get through. You'll have to go to the games just to enjoy the "experience" because there won't be that much to watch on the field. I'd imagine they will lose 90-110 games each of the next 2 seasons. By 2018 we should see some of that young talent start to blossom. They still won't contend, but I think by that time they will start to make some noise and might even finish near the .500 mark. Of course Stearns may have made some poor deals and it may take even longer, but if we assume the rankings on these minor leaguers are correct they should be able to field a "competitive" roster by 2018.

 

[Crease Creature]

maybe some good ticket/promotional deals to boost attendance next couple of seasons?

I remember Attanasio basically apologized for the late season collapse a few years ago, offered fans who came to those games discounts on concessions, and my dad and I even got free tickets to a series the next season

 

[GBP4EVER]

maybe some good ticket/promotional deals to boost attendance next couple of seasons?

I remember Attanasio basically apologized for the late season collapse a few years ago, offered fans who came to those games discounts on concessions, and my dad and I even got free tickets to a series the next season

I think bobbleheads and t-shirts are getting played out. Crappy product on the field you will see fans not care and not turn out.

 

[Crease Creature]

I think bobbleheads and t-shirts are getting played out. Crappy product on the field you will see fans not care and not turn out.

Nah, not that stuff. Like real promotional type stuff. Any fan who bought a ticket to one of the last 20 games got two free tickets for a series the next season. My dad and I got four tickets to see two Brewers/Pirates games the next season. Plus everything except the beer was like 50% off.

 

[FlaPack]

I'm afraid this is a long term Valley for this organization. The question won't be about promotions or free tickets or bobble heads. It comes down to how patient the general fan base. Free tickets are nice but there is still parking and concessions. I don't know the answer. I'll give the benefit of the doubt but in 3-5 years good chance you see new ownership. New gm and new manager

 

[57packer]

You sound kind of "half-empty" there Pack. Guess it depends on what you consider long-term. This team has had plenty of valleys in their history and the folks keep coming to the ballpark. They drew 2.5mil last year despite essentially being in the cellar all season. They drew better than Pittsburgh, Houston, Arizona and Minnesota, teams that were in the hunt pretty much all season.

Sure the people at the top may change, but unless there is something in the air, I don't see why Attanasio will sell. He loves baseball, there aren't good teams for sale every year so it's not like he can just choose to buy a better team, the city and fans have been pretty supportive, etc. Not sure why he would walk away before seeing the current "valley" through to to some logical endpoint. Makes no business sense to sell when the price is low.

Yes, Counsell might be gone just because managers tend to wear out their welcome after 4-5 years, but I suspect Stearns will be here at least 5 years given how much Attanasio has invested in letting him gut the team and rebuild. You don't "invest" as much as they are and then bail after a few down years. The only way I see Stearns leaving before 5 years is if someone else raids the Brewers but I suspect that will be tough to do unless you offer him a position more than just GM.

 

[FlaPack]

I hear you 57. I do think they draw 2 million or so this year but past that it's questionable. Milwaukee has a bad local broadcast rights deal and it makes ticket sales even more important. I guess I'm also not sold on draft and develop as a winning strategy in MLB. You get your occasional 3 year window but that's about it. Add in the fact that Chicago and STL have resources well above Milwaukee it's going to be a struggle for years.

 

[57packer]

Agree completely with draft and develop not being the answer for sustained success, but I don't know that the Brewers have another option. While owners don't buy teams like the Brewers for cash-flow they also don't want to end up in a ridiculously negative cash-flow position either, so they are always limited in what they can spend. Their young talent gets taken from them and it gets replaced with lesser/older talent you can afford.

That leaves them with the 3-year window scenario as you suggest. At the start of the cycle, like now, you have a bunch of young talent in the minors. It's in different stages of development. By the time you get all your prime talent into the majors it takes a few years. Then a couple more years for them to gel and grow. Then you figure out you are missing a piece or two so you make deals using whatever young talent you have left in the minors to get the major league club to be a serious contender. You can keep it together for a few years (the window) before the "money" teams come and take your top-end young talent in free agency.

You depleted the farm system to get your missing pieces and you haven't drafted high for several years, so now your roster is getting raided and the farm system is mediocre. You have to start all over. That's how I see it playing out and I'm not sure which step you can circumvent to prevent it. I guess the best possibility is to draft exceptionally well such that you over-perform relative to your draft position year in and year out. Not sure if you can bank on that strategy.

I suppose the other option is to trade your young talent while you still control it and keep dumping talented youngsters into the farm system. It ticks off the fans but might give you a better result. I'm not sure. Might have been better to trade guys like Hart, Weeks, Prince, and Braun when you still had control and tried to fill the farm system with young, highly rated minor leaguers. Maybe that's a partial answer, but who knows.

 

[FlaPack]

The thing is the so called talent that Melvin traded never really developed into all star type talent. Which I guess goes to the point that prospects are no guarantee. But with that so so talent you got Grienke CC and without them you don't win. Stearns needs to hit a high average on these trades and draft. Now truth told the Braun contract is the big issue. But at the time a smart deal.

What's the answer? Don't know. I lean more to a mix of youth but also trade some that youth when it has value for established talent. Yes a risk but history tells us the rebuild around youth is a crap shoot