I get where you are coming from Mark, but it's a gamble. As GBP says above, who knows with AR. He is probably looking for that next deal. Maybe he's good to go (from his perspective) for another 5 years or more. That chip on his shoulder may motivate him to try and break some records.
It's a tough call. I have no argument regarding the player just whether using a draft pick on anything other than a back-up is worth it until you know more. If this scout thinks this kid might be the #4 QB in the draft and he has the pro-type look, it may take a 1st or early 2nd to get him. If it does, I'm not in favor because it could be AR plays at a high level for a 4-5 more years and then the kid bolts in FA. If he falls into Rd 3 or lower, then sure, go for it. At worst you will have a new #2 QB for 4 years behind an aging and perhaps more injury prone QB, and that's worth a 3rd Rd (or later) pick.