NIL - Texas style

The point I was making had nothing to do with their pleas for program money every year. This is money above the donations to the program. It's pay for play.

What you're not seeing is the elephant in the room because you spent too much time downplaying where this thing was going. Several things could happen with that money. If spread across 85 guys, it's roughly $150k each. But that probably isn't the end of it. That money might only go to less than 30 players, and they'll get around $500k each. Or, the $13 mill could be the base, and an extra $10 mill or so will be used to lure the top athletes. Like adding $300-$500k a year to each of their deals. It's going to end up being the schools whose donors can spend the most will get the best, and the rest will be nothing but dart boards for them every year.

Make no bones about it. This is money far beyond that given to the program itself. This is money directly paid to the athletes, and there will be some players, especially QBs, whose packages will be higher than they'll get in their first deal in the NFL.

And yes, we all know they will pay taxes on the income like anyone else.
 
TW said:
The point I was making had nothing to do with their pleas for program money every year. This is money above the donations to the program. It's pay for play.

What you're not seeing is the elephant in the room because you spent too much time downplaying where this thing was going. Several things could happen with that money. If spread across 85 guys, it's roughly $150k each. But that probably isn't the end of it. That money might only go to less than 30 players, and they'll get around $500k each. Or, the $13 mill could be the base, and an extra $10 mill or so will be used to lure the top athletes. Like adding $300-$500k a year to each of their deals. It's going to end up being the schools whose donors can spend the most will get the best, and the rest will be nothing but dart boards for them every year.

Make no bones about it. This is money far beyond that given to the program itself. This is money directly paid to the athletes, and there will be some players, especially QBs, whose packages will be higher than they'll get in their first deal in the NFL.

And yes, we all know they will pay taxes on the income like anyone else.
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And one thing we do not know is the terms and fine print in these deals. I have also spoken to NIL agencies and NIL agents…..Not one is what Trevor Lawrence makes ($36m). Also some key points
  • Is there injury clauses
  • Do they have to stay for 3 years? 4 years ?
  • Who owns the IP
  • What are the payment terms
  • What money is in escrow (yes that’s a thing)
  • Is it guaranteed by the collective (bonded )
Honestly there is a lot of chest pumping and bloviating going on. More than you think
 
Of course there are issues. There will be as long as this is the way things work. But none of what you stated in that post goes against what some of us are saying about where this has already gone, and will go.

The devil is always in the details, and I too have talked to people inside a couple of collectives, some attorneys, and they all say the same thing. There's going to be big pay days for a lot of kids, in some programs, and peanuts to kids in other programs, because it all depends on well healed the alumni is, that are willing to donate to the NIL program.

It is what it is, face it. Nobody's putting this one back in the bottle.
 
TW said:
Of course there are issues. There will be as long as this is the way things work. But none of what you stated in that post goes against what some of us are saying about where this has already gone, and will go.

The devil is always in the details, and I too have talked to people inside a couple of collectives, some attorneys, and they all say the same thing. There's going to be big pay days for a lot of kids, in some programs, and peanuts to kids in other programs, because it all depends on well healed the alumni is, that are willing to donate to the NIL program.

It is what it is, face it. Nobody's putting this one back in the bottle.
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What I am hearing and what you are hearing is not the same. Yes some kids will see paydays, a lot remains to be seen. Some of the “deals” floated around are pure conjecture…: packages will be higher than they'll get in their first deal in the NFL? Well if their first NFL deal is about $3m to $5m over 4-5 years maybe but it’s an outlier not the norm. The fear by many is that it’s not sustainable. Some deals will surface but that’s the exception.
 
NIL bottom line the way it is current is a cancer on college sports
 
FlaPack said:
What I am hearing and what you are hearing is not the same. Yes some kids will see paydays, a lot remains to be seen. Some of the “deals” floated around are pure conjecture…: packages will be higher than they'll get in their first deal in the NFL? Well if their first NFL deal is about $3m to $5m over 4-5 years maybe but it’s an outlier not the norm. The fear by many is that it’s not sustainable. Some deals will surface but that’s the exception.
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One of the dumbest things that happens when people try to figure out what the "average Joe" makes for a living is to apply dollar figures across a spectrum that's not real. A high level CEO in a Fortune 500 company could make $50 mill a year, and if you add in a plumber, doctor, insurance salesman, and dude working at the car wash for minimum wage, you can end up with an average wage of over $10 mill per person. Reality tells you that's not the right way to even approach the question of average earnings. You need to eliminate the elite incomes prior to even heading down this road.

Look at the lowest salary for NFL players, then realize that there will 40 to 50 guys trying to nab spots on every roster that pay a little over $700k. If lucky, 20% will get a shot. The rest will be history, or at best, practice squad material. At least half of that group of .... let's say 10 that are lucky enough to make it..... won't finish the entire season, and get half pay at best.

It's disingenuous to even start by including the high end salaries to get to a figure as to what the "average player" makes. The wage scale is tipped so heavily to the top.

For openers, 50 kids on a college football roster making an average of $75k a year. Of those 50, usually 5 or 6, at most, will even get a shot at making an NFL roster. Right there, you can see the imbalance.

And yes, there will be some college stars who make more in college than offered in the NFL. There are college QBs that are amazing in college, and will command big time NIL money, but won't be worth a draft pick in the NFL draft. If they sign, it will be as a free agent, with a bare bones contract, and it will more than likely be less than they get in college for playing.
 
TW said:
One of the dumbest things that happens when people try to figure out what the "average Joe" makes for a living is to apply dollar figures across a spectrum that's not real. A high level CEO in a Fortune 500 company could make $50 mill a year, and if you add in a plumber, doctor, insurance salesman, and dude working at the car wash for minimum wage, you can end up with an average wage of over $10 mill per person. Reality tells you that's not the right way to even approach the question of average earnings. You need to eliminate the elite incomes prior to even heading down this road.

Look at the lowest salary for NFL players, then realize that there will 40 to 50 guys trying to nab spots on every roster that pay a little over $700k. If lucky, 20% will get a shot. The rest will be history, or at best, practice squad material. At least half of that group of .... let's say 10 that are lucky enough to make it..... won't finish the entire season, and get half pay at best.

It's disingenuous to even start by including the high end salaries to get to a figure as to what the "average player" makes. The wage scale is tipped so heavily to the top.

For openers, 50 kids on a college football roster making an average of $75k a year. Of those 50, usually 5 or 6, at most, will even get a shot at making an NFL roster. Right there, you can see the imbalance.

And yes, there will be some college stars who make more in college than offered in the NFL. There are college QBs that are amazing in college, and will command big time NIL money, but won't be worth a draft pick in the NFL draft. If they sign, it will be as a free agent, with a bare bones contract, and it will more than likely be less than they get in college for playing.
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My point was / is that 95% players, especially QBs, will not have packages that will be higher than they'll get in their first deal in the NFL. Even a 4th round pick gets $800k+ per year , a 5th gets $600k+ per year. Will 3 star kids get that. Highly doubtful. And as been discussed what are the terms in NIL deals which from all accounts are all over the board. And one gorilla in the room is that there is belief that many of $$$ being reported are a bit exaggerated, just like NFL agents touting APY which is irrelevant in the big scheme of things. I know of some deals that factor in IP as compensation which is laughable.

Sure a couple of elite QB’s like Arch Manning will command six figure NIL deals but will it reach what Lawrence makes ? No.

There alot of promises being made out there by some collectives and “advisors” that are just not sustainable. Just wait until some kid and his family brings a lawsuit claiming breach of contract. And then let’s see the dirty laundry that comes out in discovery. pop(
 
You keep grasping at the top level QB salaries. That's just a handful at the most, coming out of college. There are a hundred or more who will never see the field, or even be invited to a professional football camp to show what they have. Their income over those 4-5 years in college compared to the "zero" they get when their eligibility expires is all they'll ever see from football.

As for the dirty laundry, of course it will come out, and be denied, by all concerned, except the aggrieved. It happens all the time. These collectives will not be represented by chicken farmer/part time attorneys. They're already involving some of the best damned litigators out there. In the end, it will tarnish images, but somewhere in each of those contracts will be loopholes that a kid and his family will need to accept or he'll never get the deal.

Loopholes. The way people with way too much money manipulate the entire system, thanks to attorneys who know how to insure that they're included in damned near everything the extremely wealthy do.
 
TW said:
You keep grasping at the top level QB salaries. That's just a handful at the most, coming out of college. There are a hundred or more who will never see the field, or even be invited to a professional football camp to show what they have. Their income over those 4-5 years in college compared to the "zero" they get when their eligibility expires is all they'll ever see from football.

As for the dirty laundry, of course it will come out, and be denied, by all concerned, except the aggrieved. It happens all the time. These collectives will not be represented by chicken farmer/part time attorneys. They're already involving some of the best damned litigators out there. In the end, it will tarnish images, but somewhere in each of those contracts will be loopholes that a kid and his family will need to accept or he'll never get the deal.

Loopholes. The way people with way too much money manipulate the entire system, thanks to attorneys who know how to insure that they're included in damned near everything the extremely wealthy do.
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Yep there will always be a way to pay a kid to make sure there is a backdown to any rule law.
 
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